Fifth Season Stakes: Ginobili Rates Top Billing in a Field of Ten Older Males

Check out our predictions and odds for the Fifth Season Stakes at Oaklawn Park!

*Odds provided by author Brian Zipse.

Fifth Season Stakes Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($60 in total)

$10 Exacta Box - Rated R Superstar, King Fury and Silver Prospector = $60

If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick Rated R Superstar (4/1).    

Off a sharp return performance, Ginobili rates top billing in a field of ten older males entered in Saturday’s $150,000 Fifth Season Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

A 6-year-old son of Munnings, he was off for nearly a year before returning two months ago in a loaded allowance race at Del Mar in which he ran a bang-up race to finish second by a head.

A Grade 2 winner at Del Mar in 2021, he is perhaps best known as the second-place finisher behind Life Is Good in that year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Chief among his competition in the one-mile Fifth Season will be the defending race champion Rated R Superstar. 

A 10-year-old son of Kodiak Kowboy, the veteran racehorse is a five-time winner at Oaklawn Park. Most recently, he won the Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial Stakes at Remington Park to close out his most successful season to date.

Another who should get plenty of attention on Saturday is the Robertino Diodoro-trained Soy Tapatia. 

The Not This Time gelding closed out the 2022 season by running at smaller tracks around the continent, where he was able to score three stakes victories in his last five starts.

Fifth Season Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis

Ginobili

Second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile back in 2021, this son of Munnings is capable of showing his heels to this field. After a lengthy layoff, he returned with a sharp effort going six furlongs at his favorite track, Del Mar. 

Off only that sprint, he will likely be a big favorite over an experienced group on Saturday. Adding to the level of difficulty in his first trip to Arkansas is plenty of early speed in here. He is capable of passing horses, but he’ll likely be right there on the strong pace.

At his best, he probably wins this, but as a big favorite, I see enough warning signs to take a shot to beat him.

Rated R Superstar

The old veteran just keeps on going and back at Oaklawn Park, there is little reason to believe he will slow down now. He had a very good year last year, highlighted by two stakes wins early in the season locally, before adding two more before the year was over. 

The winner of this race last year should get a nice pace set-up on Saturday and is likely to come running once again. 

There will come a time in the not-too-distant future where this 10-year-old shows signs of his age, but for now, he looks as good as ever. Trying to become a millionaire in races at Oaklawn Park alone here, I like his chances. He is the top pick

Soy Tapatio

A winner of three stakes races in his last five trips to the starting gate, it’s clear that this son of Not This Time is going well right now. 

Trained by Robertino Diodoro, he could be coming into his own as a 5-year-old. Still, I do have some reservations. He has been running at some smaller tracks of late, and it’s pretty difficult to put those performances into the context of what he will see on Saturday. 

I do believe he is in with a chance to add another stakes victory, but I do slightly prefer horse who are more proven in class, and also those that like to do their best running late

Runnin’ Ray

This consistent son of Street Sense won a pair of allowance races at Oaklawn Park last year and has won three times overall at the Hot Springs oval. 

It looks like his best races have come against a little cheaper, though, and also when he is able to get to the early lead. Considering the amount of speed in this race, I do not think that will be an easy task. 

I respect how often he runs well, but I do see him as just a cut below the best in here. He is hard to completely dismiss, but I like others better. 

King Fury

Trained by Kenny McPeek, this son of Curlin is a three-time graded stakes winner. Unfortunately, he was unable to find the winner’s circle in five starts last year as a 4-year-old. 

He kept good company, though, and ran some good races. He will need to turn it around from his last one over the track, but he has the back class to think he is eligible to do that.

With plenty of speed in here to set up his rally, and dropping down to the one-mile distance, I believe he is one of the few horses in the field that can come running in the stretch. He’ll offer good value too, coming off the losing streak. He is one I will use in the exotics.

Heart Rhythm

Twice a winner at Oaklawn Park, both of those victories came in allowance races going six furlongs. Sprinting has really been the name of the game for this son of Flat Out throughout his career, so this race will offer him the rare opportunity to run longer. 

In the right circumstance that might work, but with all the early speed signed on here, I am not big on his chances to run a big race on Saturday.  

His form of late is good, but this is a race that will probably be a little bit too much out of his comfort zone to expect success.

Hello Hot Rod

One of several horses in the field with early speed, this gelding set the pace last time at Remington Park before seeing Rated R Superstar zoom by him down the lane. 

Five times a winner overall, he earned his only stakes win two years ago when going wire-to-wire in a listed stakes race at Aqueduct. 

While his recent form is solid, there seems to be too much speed in here to believe that he will get the kind of trip he needs to win.  

Silver Prospector

It’s been some time since this Steve Asmussen trainee was a talked-about horse on the Kentucky Derby trail. In fact, it’s been nearly three years since a win in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park made him the second choice in the 2020 edition of the $1 million Rebel Stakes. 

There have been plenty of losses since, but the son of Declaration of War has run enough good races to still be considered a threat here.

A nice winner of the Grade 3 Steve Sexton Mile last year, he has also kept good company throughout his career. Once again, I cannot throw him out, and at the odds, I look forward to including him in the exotics.

Seize the Night

By far the most lightly raced horse in the field, this 4-year-old son of Carpe Diem was away from the races for 16 months before returning in November. 

He didn’t make much noise in an allowance sprint at Churchill Downs but came right back to drill allowance foes over the Oaklawn Park strip last time. A nice win over the track is something, but this will be a significantly tougher race on Saturday.

 A winner of 2-of-4 lifetime for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, he could be a horse of some talent, but this looks a bit too tough at this stage of his career.

Dreamer’s Disease

A 5-year-old son of Laoban, this one comes in off two straight wire-to-wire wins at Delta Downs. Two starts back, he earned his first career stakes win in the Delta Mile, before romping home against allowance company last time. 

The class level of this will be the big question for the Ricky Courville-trained gelding, as he has yet to make a serious run against open stakes company before. 

I am expecting a similar result for him in the Fifth Season, but at the very least he should be able to make his presence felt in the early stages and perhaps make life tougher on the favorite.

How to watch the Fifth Season Stakes

Fifth Season Stakes Race Information

• What: Fifth Season Stakes 

• Location: Oaklawn Park

• Time: Saturday, January 14 -- 5:22 pm Eastern time

• How to Watch: FanDuel TV

• Purse: $150,000