Streaking into her biggest test yet off four consecutive victories, Goodnight Olive looms the one to beat in a full field of 13 set for Saturday’s $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) at Keeneland.
A 4-year-old daughter of Ghostzapper, the Chad Brown-trained filly was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 Ballerina in her most recent start. Still lightly raced, her only career defeat in six career starts came in her debut 20 months ago.
Chief among her challengers in this 7-furlong affair is last year’s 2-year-old filly champion Echo Zulu. She too has only been beaten once in her career and that came in the 9-furlong Kentucky Oaks (G1).
Most recently, the daughter of Gun Runner was an easy return winner in the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes at Churchill Downs going a flat mile.
Another champion competing in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint is the 6-year-old mare Ce Ce.
The winner of this race last year at Del Mar, the champion female sprinter of 2021 has added three more graded stakes wins this year, including an easy score in the Grade 3 Chillingworth Stakes at Santa Anita last out.
Overall, every horse in the large field is a stakes winner, and nine of the thirteen are coming into this race off a stakes win in their last start.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Predictions and Race Analysis
Goodnight Olive
This daughter of Ghostzapper has rattled off five consecutive victories after running second in her career debut last season for trainer Chad Brown. Brought around slowly, she finally got her chance to strut her stuff against top competition last time when she won nicely in the Grade 1 Ballerina.
The victory going seven furlongs at Saratoga confirmed her class and points her out as a legitimate favorite here. Still, she has things to prove as she faces a strong and deep field for the first time.
Able to pass horses, the trip should suit her, coming from the middle of the pack. If she brings her best, she might be too good, but I want to see her prove it. She is the one to beat, but I like one other better.
Ce Ce
Last year’s winner and champion female sprinter is in position to win another on Saturday. Just like last year she comes in off a sharp win in the Grade 3 Chillingworth at Santa Anita. She also is right at home at the seven-furlong trip she finds here.
Unlike last year, though, this is a very deep field with plenty of early speed. Best when she can lay close and pounce, she might find herself farther back this time.
That could possibly work to her advantage if she fires from the back, but I fear that others who are more comfortable coming from well back may hold the advantage. She is definitely a threat to repeat, but I do like a couple others better.
Echo Zulu
The 2-year-old filly champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner of last year has not been around a lot this year. The daughter of Gun Runner has only made three starts this year, and picked up her only career loss when stretched out to nine furlongs in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.
She returned from a layoff last time and looked great in dominating the one-mile Dogwood Stakes at Churchill Downs. She has a great record and is full of class, but drawn to the far outside she will have trouble getting her customary spot on the front.
With all the speed in here, it looks like a tough spot as she faces older mares for the first time. I have a lot of respect for her, but I like others better here.
Frank’s Rockette
Coming in off a romping stakes win at Charles Town this experienced mare is in good form and will get another shot at top company. She finished 11th against the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint two years ago at Keeneland.
She’s had many solid performances since then, but has never been able to get over the hump in the bigger tests. The 5-year-old daughter of Into Mischief is also a horse who likes to be close to the early pace, which should be demanding on Saturday.
She has been a really nice mare over the years, but I think this spot will once again prove a little too much for her.
Obligatory
Trained by Bill Mott, this daughter of Curlin is one of the few horses in the field who likes to make a big late run. I expect that running style will benefit here as so many fillies in the field try to carry their speed a demanding seven furlongs.
She’s coming off a third behind Goodnight Olive last time in the Ballerina, but Saratoga does not seem to be her favorite track and she did encounter some trouble in that race. Three races back, she came from well back to roll home the winner of the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff at Churchill Downs.
Coming in off a loss to the morning line favorite, the four-time graded stakes winner should offer solid value in a race that should suit her perfectly. She is the top pick.
Wicked Halo
Like Echo Zulu, she is also a Steve Asmussen-trained daughter of Gun Runner. A graded stakes winner in the summer of 2021 at Saratoga, she looks better than ever and enters this test off four consecutive victories.
She prefers to be close to the early pace, but does have the ability to come from a little bit off it like she did to win the Grade 2 Raven Run at Keeneland last time.
Things only get tougher here as she faces older horses for the first time, but off her recent form, she deserves consideration. This will easily be her toughest test yet, though.
Lady Rocket
At her best, this 5-year-old Tale of the Cat mare is a danger in any race she runs. Two races back she ran poorly in the Ballerina after never getting to the early lead. That is not her game, as she is clearly best when running free on the lead.
Unfortunately, this looks like a very difficult spot to do that with all the speed in the field. Coming off a sharp second to the very tough Kimari last time, she could be one of the tougher speed horses in the field, but the pace pressure will likely be her demise on Saturday.
Slammed
This New Mexico-bred daughter of Marking proved her ability outside of her native state with a pair of strong efforts at Del Mar. She followed those up with a romping win at Keeneland in the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes.
The victory was impressive enough to believe she is in with a real shot on Saturday. Having said, she is one of many in the race with early speed and will likely be under pressure all the way around.
Trained by Todd Fincher, the winner of 9-of-12 overall is a very nice filly, but I just don’t believe this race sets up for her well.
Edgeway
Trained by John Sadler, this classy mare was second in this race last year. A winner of 8-of-13 lifetime, she has won three of four this year, including a game win over Slammed in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo last time.
Unfortunately, her lone loss of the year came when well beaten in a Grade 1 at Churchill Downs earlier this year while going 7 furlongs.
She could do better than that, but with plenty of speed signed up for this one, I think she will once again have a tough task. Classy and fresh, though, she cannot be completely dismissed.
Chi Town Lady
This 3-year-old daughter of Verrazano broke through last time with an impressive victory in the Grade 1 Test at odds of 17/1. She should have similar odds on Saturday as she looks to prove that the win was no fluke.
Off since the Test, she will come to this one a fresh filly, having not raced for three months. A repeat effort puts her in with a shot, but I tend to think the tougher competition of the older mares will prove a little too tough.
Chain of Love
After having a big year at the Breeders’ Cup last year, the Japanese contingent is surprisingly small this year, with this one being their only entrant. The experienced daughter of Heart’s Cry has only managed to win a 3-of-22 lifetime, but has been better since switching to the dirt six starts back.
She was pretty competitive in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen earlier this year, and comes off a strong late rally to get up for the win in her last.
Consistently running in big fields and against the boys, she is likely to fit well in this race. I believe she is a longshot with a real chance here.
Hot Peppers
Another filly with a high turn of early speed, this Khozan filly has been on the early lead in most of her nine career starts.
She did string together a pair of stakes wins at Belmont Park this summer, but was unable to keep the success going at Saratoga, where she was second in the Test and fourth in the Prioress.
She has proven to be a nice sprinter, but I think there is just too much quality speed in here to expect her to be involved in the late stages.
Sterling Silver
This 3-year-old daughter of Cupid is a two-time stakes winner, but both of those wins came against fellow New York-breds. Against open company, she is 0-for-6 in her career. Her career-best came two races back when she rallied to be a close second behind Wicked Halo in the Prioress.
She is a longshot who could be passing tired horses in the lane, but there is just not enough in her past performances to believe she can be a serious threat.
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