Breeders' Cup Classic (Del Mar) Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks 2024

The richest race in American racing, the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic will draw a star-studded international field to Del Mar on Saturday, Nov. 2. Leading the way will be a trio of highly accomplished 3-year-olds from Asia, Europe, and North America. 

City of Troy, Europe’s top grass horse, could be the slight choice among bettors, but the champion son of Justify will be making his first start on dirt in the Classic. The American champion Fierceness seems to be rounding into top form in his attempt to win a second Breeders’ Cup race, while Forever Young will be back in the United States after an unlucky and narrow defeat in the Kentucky Derby.

The field and post positions will be drawn on Monday, Oct. 28 for the $7 million, 1 1/4-mile race. Pending any late defections, here is the likely field in order of my preference and including my early odds.

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Breeders' Cup Classic Predictions and Race Analysis

Forever Young (5/1)

While City of Troy and Fierceness will likely vie for favoritism, I believe this Japanese raider will offer excellent wagering value. I consider him to be the most likely winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The son of Real Steel is proven at the distance and trained by one of the world’s best. A winner of 6-of-7 lifetime, he has the tactical speed to secure a good spot early and the turn of foot to take over the race in the early stretch. We know he travels well, and after a freshening, he looked good in his prep back in Japan. He is the horse to beat

Fierceness (7/2)

An impressive winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year in his only previous race in Southern California, this son of City of Light must be respected as he seeks to lock up another championship. After a failed attempt in the Kentucky Derby, the Todd Pletcher-trainee has come back with two nice wins against top competition. Last out, he proved himself at the distance in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, just holding off the sensational filly Thorpedo Anna. He has home field advantage, but the internationals might have the advantage at this distance, however.

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City of Troy (3/1)

There can be little doubt that this Aiden O’Brien-trained star is of top class and can easily be called the world’s best horse. A series of Group 1 wins have proven his ability at the distance and against top older competition. Like Forever Young, he has only one career loss. The question clearly becomes can he translate that excellence to dirt racing. As a son of the American Triple Crown winner Justify, there is big hope for him, but with turf pedigree on the other side there are enough concerns to drop him to third here in his first try on the surface.

Arthur’s Ride (20/1)

With both National Treasure and Seize the Grey pre-entered in the Dirt Mile, suddenly the Classic has less early speed than expected. This handsome son of Tapit could be ready to take full advantage. His early speed and strong talent make him a threat, but doubly so if he is allowed to relax on the lead in the first part of the race. A big winner of a 10-furlong allowance and then the Grade 1 Whitney earlier this year, he will need to bounce back from a disappointing fade to fifth last time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

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Ushba Tesoro (12/1)

The second of three from Japan, this veteran son of Orfevre has seldom failed to fire since switching to dirt a few years back. The winner of the 2023 Dubai World Cup loves the 1 1/4-mile trip and has a strong closing kick that can overwhelm the tiring leaders. His fast-closing second in his recent prep looked good, but the shortish stretch at Del Mar could be the deciding factor between a victory and a board hitting effort.

Sierra Leone (8/1)

Four years younger than Ushba Tesoro, this son of Gun Runner also likes to come from well back with a strong closing kick. After winning two straight important Kentucky Derby preps, he has lost four consecutive races for trainer Chad Brown. The good news is that he closed well and was in contention in all four while facing top competition. I am not sure that he can get over the hump here, but a strong early pace set by Arthur’s Ride and others would help his chances.

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Newgate (15/1)

Although this California-based 4-year-old has never before defeated this type of competition, there are things to like about his chances as a long shot. He proved himself capable at the 10-furlong distance earlier this season with a victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Trained by Bob Baffert, he was freshened after a failed run in Dubai and came back with a very promising narrow loss in the Grade 1 California Crown last time.

Next (12/1)

One of the biggest wildcards in the field, this experienced son of Not This Time will look to show that he can run with the world’s best dirt horses at the distance of 10 furlong distance. A monster running longer, he has left his competition far, far behind while running distances of 12-furlongs or more. The faster pace he will see here will be tough to overcome, but he did look awfully good when shortened up to 11-furlongs a few races back.

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Highland Falls (12/1)

This son of Curlin broke through with his first Grade 1 victory last time out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He will need to build upon that effort to be a true threat in this one, however. Fourth behind Newgate in the Santa Anita Handicap earlier this year, he has yet to prove that he can defeat the best of the game. He will come into the Classic improving and in with a shot, but I like others better here.

Tapit Trice (15/1)

It’s hard to completely ignore a horse who has won four graded stakes races in the past two seasons. He also comes in off one of his finest performances yet, having won the Grade 2 Woodward Stakes last time with a powerful finish. Still, the truth has been that he has just not got the job done in several tries against true Grade 1 quality competition. Perhaps he has improved with age, but there are too many good ones in here to expect a win for Tapit Trice.

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Derma Sotogake (20/1)

The last of the three Japanese shippers, this son of Mind Your Biscuits ran a big race in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year to finish second behind White Abarrio. I believe this year’s field is a little better than last year, however, and he has not shown his best form in three starts this year. I do expect improvement off his most recent effort, but I don’t expect it to be enough to be a real contender in this year’s race.

Senor Buscador (30/1)

If this 6-year-old son of Mineshaft can find his best form from earlier this year, he would rate a shot, but his races since returning from time overseas and a layoff has been less than promising. He is also one who likes to come from well back and with Ushba Tesoro and Sierra Leone looking to be the top two doing that, I find it hard to recommend his chances against this deep field.

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Mixto (20/1)

The winner of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at the same track and distance as the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year should have more respect, but it was a weak edition this year and he was a big long shot when he won it. The son of Good Magic may be improving, but with only two wins in 14 career races, it’s hard to believe that he can pull off another major upset.

Skippylongstocking (30/1)

A very nice horse running a little shorter and against competition just below the Grade 1 level, I have plenty of respect for his son of Exaggerator. Having said that, I do not see this as a good spot for him. With his good tactical speed, he is one of the horses in the race that could push Arthur’s Ride in the early fractions, but after that I do not see him sticking around.

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How to Watch Breeders' Cup Classic

• What: Breeders' Cup Classic

• Location: Del Mar

• When: November 2, 2 p.m. ET to 3 p.m. ET

• How to Watch: Peacock, NBC, NBC Sports app