Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Aqueduct, October 26

On the weekend before the Breeders’ Cup, I will look to pad the bankroll by zeroing in on some winners at Aqueduct. Saturday’s 11-race card includes a trio of interesting graded stakes races. I will focus on those three, as well as a turf allowance race which falls in the middle. The afternoon’s headliner is the Grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes, which features Gun Song who gave Thorpedo Anna a tough race last out in the $1 million Cotillion Stakes.

The afternoon’s other graded stakes races are both for older males, one for sprinters and the other for dirt milers. In the $250,000 Forty Niner Stakes, Messier makes his first race since the spring against a salty crew, while in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler, Scotland looks like the one to beat for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Without further ado, let’s get to my top picks and plays for this excellent afternoon of racing from New York.

Race #7 Bold Ruler Stakes (Grade 3) $175,000 6-Furlongs Dirt - 3:17pm EST

Fresh off a second-place finish behind the Breeders’ Cup-bound Mufasa, Scotland looks to be an imposing presence against six other older male sprinters in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler on Saturday at the Big A.

After running a route of ground last year in Grade 1 races like the Travers and Pennsylvania Derby, the son of Good Magic has found a home sprinting this year. Two starts back he impressively won against a deep allowance field at Saratoga, before running a clear-cut second last time to the talented Mufasa in the Grade 3 Vosburgh. Both of those races came at 7-furlongs, so he will be shortening up a bit for the 6-furlong Bold Ruler.

A top threat to Scotland could come from Top Gunner. Claimed for $62,500 two starts back, the veteran sprinter was a good-looking winner for new trainer Brad Cox in the Parx Sprint five weeks ago. The sharp effort for his new barn makes him a dangerous runner on Saturday. 

My Buddy B was also a stakes winner at Parx recently and did not run badly when chasing the very fast Federal Judge in a stakes race at Keeneland. Little Vic and Surveillance are also graded stakes winners who bring solid recent form into the Bold Ruler. Scotland looks tough, however, and is the top pick.

My Play

• $10 Daily Double - Scotland with Jefferson Street, Coastal Mission, and Messier = $30

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Race #8 Forty Niner Stakes (Grade 3) $250,000 1-Mile Dirt - 3:49pm EST

Messier has been away for nearly six months, but if he comes back sharp for trainer Richard Dutrow, Jr. he will be the one they all have to beat in Saturday’s $250,000 Forty Niner Stakes at Aqueduct.

A talented 5-year-old son of Empire Maker, Messier has been in a few high profile barns over his career, but continues to be a horse to fear in races like this. He was disqualified from the win in the Excelsior Stakes for interference, but made amends in early May with one of the best wins of his career when he beat a good field in the Grade 3 Westchester. He is working well for his return.

Chief among his competition here is the hard-knocking Coastal Mission. Trained by Jeff Runco, the gelding has won 13-of-24 career races overall, including the Parx Dirt Mile in his most recent start. The son of Great Notion finished a good second behind top sprinter Mullikin in the Grade 2 Jan Nerud at Aqueduct earlier this year. 

Others to consider in the one mile Forty Niner include Repo Rocks and Jefferson Street. The former is a multiple graded stakes winning veteran who has had plenty of success at Aqueduct over the years, while the latter is a talented 3-year-old who will add blinkers and top rider Flavien Prat for this assignment. Coming off a sharp effort in Kentucky last time, I like the lone sophomore in the field best in a tough race. Jefferson Street is the top pick.

My Plays

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Jefferson Street over Messier, Coastal Mission, and Repo Rocks = $30

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Messier, Coastal Mission, and Repo Rocks over Jefferson Street = $30

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Race #9 Allowance $95,000 1 1/16-Miles Turf - 4:20pm EST

A sharp winner in his only career turf race, Create Trouble could be a handful for the rest of the field when he tops a field of ten older males in a  turf allowance affair at Aqueduct.

A son of Into Mischief, he seemed to relish the switch to grass two starts back when he went gate to wire in a fast allowance race at Colonial Downs. Last time out, he ran fourth in the slop in a race that was taken off the turf. In a race without too much speed, he should sit close to the early pace and be ready to pounce when the field turns for home.

Chief among his competition is the California shipper Irish Prophet. Although he has only won twice in 13 tries on the grass, the Neil Drysdale-trained runner has shown very solid recent form out West. Placed third in the Grade 3 San Marcos three starts back, he was right there in a pair of allowance races at Del Mar most recently.

Another to fear in this 8 1/2-furlong test is the late-running Ocean Atlantique. A 7-year-old son of American Pharoah, he has finished in the top three in 3-of-4 races on the Aqueduct turf. His last was not good, but before that he was right there in three solid allowance races. In a pretty wide-open race, I see Create Trouble as the most likely winner. He is the top pick.

My Play 

• $10 Daily Double - Create Trouble, Irish Prophet, and Ocean Atlantique with Gun Song = $30

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Race #10 Mother Goose Stakes (Grade 2) $250,000 1 1/8-Miles Dirt - 4:51pm EST

Coming in off an excellent second-place finish in the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes at Parx last time, Gun Song rates top billing against seven other sophomore fillies in Saturday’s Grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes at Aqueduct.

The daughter of Gun Runner is a two-time stakes winner for trainer Mark Hennig this year, but was still a sizable long shot against the likes of Thorpedo Anna in the million-dollar race last time. She ran her heart out, however, and was only a neck behind the soon to be champion at the wire. John Velazquez will again be in the saddle for this 9-furlong test.

Her top rival here is the filly who finished third in the Cotillion. Trained by Brad Cox, Tarifa was a two-time graded stakes winner early this year in New Orleans. The Godolphin homebred has lost three straight since then, but has run well in two starts after a short freshening. 

Another to watch out for in the historic Mother Goose is the lightly-raced Headline Numbers. Trained by Chad Brown, she was a big debut winner at Aqueduct in July before getting placed first through disqualification last time at Saratoga. She will need to move forward, but looks capable. I cannot look past the recent form of Gun Song, however. She is the top pick.

My Play

• $10 Trifecta Key - Gun Song over Tarifa, Headline Numbers, and Life Talk = $60

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