Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Keeneland, October 19

With just over a week to go at the excellent fall meeting at Keeneland, I will turn my attention to a solid Saturday afternoon of racing in the heart of Kentucky’s bluegrass. Leading the way will be a pair of contentious contests for sophomores sprinters. The girls will be in the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes, which is headlined by the consistent Emery. Meanwhile, the boys will counter with the Grade 3 Perryville Stakes, featuring the unbeaten Knightsbridge and the classy Book’em Danno.

Other races I will focus on include a pair of high-level allowance races with vulnerable favorites. In race 4, the two clear morning line choices both exit the Iroquois Stakes where they were well beaten. Later in the card, a full field of turf horses will meet with the morning line choice having won a longer, cheaper race easily. In both cases, I prefer a horse with bigger odds. Without further ado, let’s get to my top picks and plays for this strong card of racing from Keeneland.

Race #4 Allowance $100,000 1 1/16-Miles Dirt - 2:36pm EST

Sharp debut winners, but then well back in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes in their next starts, Jack’s Time and Authentic Strike will look to return to their winning ways as the two clear morning line favorites in an interesting 2-year-old allowance race on Saturday at Keeneland.

A son of Golden Lad, Jack’s Time is the likely favorite despite fading to sixth in his graded stakes debut. The speed of the speed will break from the far outside and will be the one they all have to catch. Authentic Strike, meanwhile, finished ninth in the Iroquois after a determined debut win at Ellis Park. While both favorites must be respected, others in the field interest me as well.

Global Legend battled all the way to the wire in the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth Park, and the experience should do him well in this spot. The Mark Casse-trainee also won in his debut three starts back at Gulfstream Park. Thrilla is another with solid stakes experience after running third in the Kitten’s Joy on the turf at Colonial Downs. He previously broke his maiden impressively on dirt.

If you are looking for someone to pick up the pieces late, Look to the Cross is an interesting longshot. The son of Cross Traffic rallied in both of his first two starts which came on the turf at Ellis Park and Kentucky Downs. Bred to handle a switch to dirt, I look for him to come running at all the speed in here. He will be my top pick for the upset.

My Play

• $20 Win & Place - Look to the Cross = $40

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Race #7 Perryville Stakes (Grade 3) $300,000 7-Furlongs Dirt - 4:12pm EST

In an interesting match-up of proven class against high potential, Book’em Danno and Knightsbridge will vie for favoritism among a full field of talented male sprinters in Saturday’s Grade 3 Perryville Stakes at Keeneland. 

Book’em Danno has been running against many of the best 3-year-olds in the world this year and has yet to fail to fire in nine career starts. The five-time stakes winner did not get the best of trips when finishing a competitive third in the Grade 1 Jerkens Memorial at Saratoga. A Grade 1 winner at the 7-furlong distance, and a versatile runner, he is the horse to beat.

Knightsbridge is largely untested, but in both his debut last fall, and his allowance win in March, he looked like a major talent. The two races, won by a combined 19 1/2-lengths make the son of Nyquist an obvious danger. This tough test in his third career start will be his first race in seven months.

Another sophomore who should get some betting attention here is the Todd Pletcher-trained Locked. Off for nearly a year, he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland before finishing third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November at Santa Anita. I will be sticking with the proven horse here. Book’em Danno is the top pick.

My Play

• $5 Trifecta Key - Book’em Danno over Knightsbridge, Locked, Patriot Spirit, and Henro = $60

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Race #8 Allowance $130,000 1 1/16-Miles Turf - 4:44pm EST

Dripping Gold, who romped home a six-length winner at Kentucky Downs last time, is the morning line favorite when he takes on a full field of older turf males in a $130,000 Allowance race on Saturday at Keeneland.

The 5-year-old gelding broke an eight-race losing streak with the big win last month while going 1 5/16-miles over the European style turf course. In this race, the son of Lemon Drop Kid will be cutting back in distance a full quarter of a mile. For those reasons, I will be looking to beat the favorite in this spot. 

Chief among his competition is the Cherie DeVaux-trained Taking Candy. A consistent son of Twirling Candy, he has good tactical speed and has finished first or second in each of his last four starts. He closed out last year by running second to the classy Carl Spackler, and has turned in two solid efforts at Saratoga to begin his 4-year-old season. He should be ready for his best in his third start of 2024.

Others to consider here include the stakes veteran Irish Acres, who won the Tapit Stakes at Kentucky Downs two starts back, the streaking Paros, and the European stakes winner Bold Discovery. Taking Candy is the one I like best, however. He is the top pick.

My Plays 

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Taking Candy over Irish Acres, Paros, and Bold Discovery = $30

• $5 Exacta Part Wheel - Irish Acres, Paros, and Bold Discovery over Taking Candy = $15

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Race #9 Raven Run Stakes (Grade 2) $350,000 7-Furlongs Dirt - 5:16pm EST

Coming in off a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga last time, Emery looks like a solid favorite against nine other sophomore fillies in Saturday’s Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland

The daughter of More Than Ready has yet to turn in a bad performance in six lifetime starts for trainer Brad Cox. Before running second to the highly regarded Ways and Means at the highest level last time, Emery won consecutive sprint stakes with victories in the Leslie’s Lady at Churchill Downs and the Grade 3 Victory Ride at Aqueduct. The favorite should be involved from the outset here.  

Her top rival here could be the filly she finished one spot ahead of in the Test. Third in that Grade 1 affair, My Mane Squeeze continued her strong season with an easy win in the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes at Churchill Downs four weeks later. A five-time stakes winner for trainer Mike Maker, she does her best running from off the pace.

Others to consider on Saturday include the stakes winning quartet of Miuccia, V V’s Dream, Twirling Queen, and Haulin Ice. Allowed to relax early with plenty of speed here, I like the chances of My Mane Squeeze to pick up the pieces at the 7-furlong distance.  She is the top pick.

My Play

• $20 Win & Place - My Mane Squeeze = $40

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