Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Keeneland, October 5

The richest race in the track’s history, the $1.25 million Coolmore Turf Mile will top a huge day of racing on Saturday at Keeneland. Fresh off a win in the Grade 1 Fourstardave at Saratoga, Carl Spackler will headline a competitive field of nine males set for the rich grass race. Four other graded stakes support the star-studded card on opening weekend at the popular Lexington, Kentucky oval.

In the $750,000 First Lady Stakes, which is the female counterpart to the Coolmore Turf Mile, Gina Romantica will be looking to win a Grade 1 for the third straight year at the fall meeting at Keeneland. The defending race champion will have plenty of competition in the field of eleven, however. In the other Grade 1 race of the afternoon, juvenile colts Ferocious and East Avenue will vie for favoritism in the $600,000 Breeders’ Futurity.  Without further ado, let’s get to my top picks and plays for this fantastic Saturday card of racing.

Race #7 Thoroughbred Club of America (Grade 2) $350,000 6-Furlongs Dirt - 4:12pm EST

A stylish return winner after nearly ten months away, Brightwork will look to add to her impressive record when she headlines a field of seven sprinting females in the Grade 2 Thoroughbred of America Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland.

A 3-year-old daughter of Outwork, she will face older mares for the first time here. Five weeks ago, she made her long awaited return to the races a successful one by scoring in the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes at Saratoga. A three-time stakes winner last season, she is trained by Johnny Ortiz and sports a perfect record of 5-for-5 when sprinting. 

The other six horses in the field are all older and all talented sprinters. Clearly Unhinged is the second choice on the morning line. She is a graded stakes winner, who just missed by a head in last year’s Grade 1 Test Stakes. Spirit Wind is a very fast mare and the third choice here. Two starts back, she went gate to wire the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga. 

With plenty of early speed in the race, I am going to look elsewhere for my top pick. Zeitlos is a very consistent daughter of Curlin, and the 4-year-old is in the best form of her life. She will be well back early, but her strong late run will be tough to deny for the others who should be softened up by a stiff early pace. The Steve Asmussen-trainee is the top pick.

My Play

• $20 Win & Place - Zeitlos = $40

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Race #8 First Lady Stakes (Grade 1) $750,000 1-Mile Turf - 4:44pm EST

Gina Romantica, the defending race champion, is the morning line favorite, but you could make a case for several others in the field as potential winners of a wide-open edition of the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes going a mile on the Keeneland turf.  

A two-time Grade 1 winner over the course, the rounding into form 5-year-old mare is certainly a potential winner on Saturday. It’s hard to discount her stablemates, as well. Trainer Chad Brown has four in the race, and besides Gina Romantica, it would be no surprise to see either Whitebeam or Chili Flag come home with the victory here. The former defended her crown in the Grade 1 Diana last time, while the latter has won three graded stakes at the one mile trip this season.  

Another strong contender in the First Lady figures to be the European invader Tarawa. Trained by Dermot Weld, the 4-year-old Irish filly has gone back and forth between facing the females and males on the other side of the pond and has consistently run well. Coming off a Group 3 win at the Curragh, she would seem to be in strong form for her U.S. debut.

Several others in the field are in with a shot in this deep field of eleven. Having said that, I do prefer one of the Brown contingent best. Chili Flag should get both the pace scenario and the distance that she prefers on Saturday. She is the top pick.

My Play

• $20 Win & Place - Chili Flag = $40

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Race #9 Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) $600,000 1 1/16-Miles Dirt - 5:16pm EST

A good second in the Grade 1 Hopeful in his second career start, Ferocious looks to do one better as the horse to beat among eleven promising juvenile males in Saturday’s $600,000 Breeders’ Futurity.

A flashy $1.3 purchase as a 2-year-old in training, the handsome son of Flatter has not disappointed so far. Trained by Gustavo Delgado, Ferocious took a talented field of maidens at Saratoga to task, winning his debut by nearly eight lengths. Favored in the Hopeful, he threw a shoe during the race and was very game while finishing second to the unbeaten Chancer McPatrick. This 1 1/16-mile race will be his first at two turns.

Another colt who should get plenty of betting support in this Grade 1 affair is the Godolphin homebred Eas Avenue. A well-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro, he has only made one star so far, but the eight-length win at Ellis Park for trainer Brendan Walsh was visually impressive.

The third choice on the morning line is the Dallas Stewart-trained Dapper Moon. A Louisiana-bred son of Malibu Moon, he had a bad start in his career debut at Saratoga before rallying for second. In his next start, he dominated his competition to win by five lengths. Ferocious is the one I like best, however. He is the top pick.

My Plays 

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Ferocious over East Avenue, Mesero, Dapper Moon, and Filoso = $40

• $5 Exacta Part Wheel - East Avenue, Mesero, Dapper Moon, and Filoso over Ferocious = $20

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Race #10 Coolmore Turf Mile (Grade 1) $1,250,000 1-Mile Turf - 5:48pm EST

Having had a taste of a Grade 1 victory last time, Carl Spackler wants more. The Chad Brown-trained runner will look for his second in a row when he faces eight others in the $1.25 Coolmore Turf Mile on Saturday at Keeneland. 

The consistent 4-year-old son of Lope de Vega won for the sixth time in nine career starts, but Saratoga’s Fourstardave was his first at the very top level. The Irish-bred American will look to stamp himself as one of the favorites for next month’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile with a win at Keeneland.

Chief among his competition is the Cherie DeVaux-trained More Than Looks. Beaten by the favorite last time in the Fourstardave, the second-place finish was his first start in more than nine months. Rank during the running, he still ran a solid race. The graded stakes winning son of More Than Ready should be ready for an improved effort this time.

A dangerous newcomer to the mix could be the English-bred Kikkuli. Although the half-brother to the great Frankel has won only once in six starts in Europe, he has been keeping strong company and running well. The American style of racing should suit the 3-year-old son of Kingsman well. I believe he can topple the home team here. He is the top pick.

My Plays

• $10 Exacta Box - Kikkuli and Carl Spackler = $20

• $5 Exacta Key Box - Kikkuli with More Than Looks and Spirit of St. Louis = $20

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