Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Churchill Downs, November 23

The weather here in Kentucky has taken a turn for the colder. With winter apparently ready to arrive, we still have some great racing at Churchill Downs. This week the home of the Kentucky Derby will feature a pair of intriguing $300,000 races on Saturday. The highly promising Two Sharp will get tested against a solid field of older mares in the Grade 3 Chilukki Stakes. If she can win this one-mile affair, she could be on her way to stardom for trainer Phil Bauer in 2025. 

Meanwhile, a wide-open field of nine 3-year-old turf males will be in search of a graded stakes victory in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf. Herchee, who has been very solid in each of his first four career starts, is the most likely favorite, but a number of horses in the field look capable of winning on the Churchill turf. Without further ado, let’s get to my top picks and plays for this strong afternoon of racing from Louisville.

Race #8 Chilukki Stakes (Grade 3) $300,000 1-Mile Dirt- 4:25pm EST

A romping winner last time at Keeneland, Two Sharp will look to keep her upward momentum going when she headlines a field of eight females entered in Saturday’s $300,000 Chilukki Stakes at Churchill Downs.

A lightly raced daughter of Twirling Candy, Two Sharp will be facing not only a graded stakes test here, but she will also stretch out in distance to one mile, after not having been farther than 6 1/2-furlongs in her first four races. Two starts back, she just missed in the Grade 3 Prioress at Saratoga, before dominating a Keeneland allowance by 6 1/4-lengths in her latest. She will get blinkers on in this one and should be the one they all have to catch. 

Two mares who have raced each other in their last two starts are among the favorite’s biggest challengers in the Chilukki. Pigalle has finished ahead of Taxed in both the Groupie Doll Stakes, which she won, and the Grade 2 Locust Grove last time. The 4-year-old daughter of Blame has been a consistent runner the past two seasons and could get first run on the early leaders.

Taxed, meanwhile, will be coming from a bit farther back early and would enjoy a contentious early pace. Although she has been unable to break through of late, she is not far off and has plenty of back class. I’ll go with a minor upset here and pick Pigalle at the one-mile distance which she likes. She is my top pick.

My Play

• $10 Daily Double Part Wheel - Pigalle and Two Sharp with Risk It and Agoo = $40

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Race #9 Allowance $127,000 6-Furlongs Dirt - 4:55pm EST

In a $127,000 allowance race for male sprinters, Attache is the morning line favorite, but several others including Banned for Life and Agoo should get plenty of support in what looks to be a wide-open 6-furlong affair.

Attache has finished in the money in all four starts this year and ten of his last eleven races. He also has strong tactical speed in a race which looks to have plenty of early speed. The 4-year-old son of Violence is one of several in here with a chance, but as the favorite, I am inclined to take a shot against him.

Both Banned for Life and Agoo have turned things up a notch in their last few races. Agoo, especially, with a very strong second last out to the graded stakes winner World Record at Keeneland, looks ready to step and run a big race here. Neither improving 3-year-old would be a surprise to take home top honors.

Another dangerous horse in the field is the Steve Asmussen-trained Risk It. The son of Gun Runner has not run since June. He has already faced numerous quality horses in his career and has been competitive. He won his debut impressively while sprinting last year, and I am expecting the time off to have done him some good. He will be the top pick for the upset here.

My Play

• $5 Exacta Box - Risk It, Agoo, and Banned for Life = $30

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Race #10 Commonwealth Turf Stakes $300,000 1 1/16-Miles Turf - 5:25pm EST

Having faced the multiple stakes winner Brilliant Berti in his first two stakes attempts, Herchee looks to take full advantage of his absence when he tops a field of nine set to compete in the $300,000 Commonwealth Turf on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

The Twirling Candy Ride colt began his career with two easy wins on the turf, a maiden at Churchill Downs and an allowance race at Ellis Park. Trained by Helen Pitts, Herchee then moved to stakes company in his next two, beaten by Brilliant Berti by only a length in the Gun Runner and then 1 1/4-lengths in the Grade 3 Bryan Station. His excellent form in all four career races makes him an obvious factor here.  

Chief among his competition in this 1 1/16-mile turf race, is the Brian Lynch-trained Dashman. The son of Oscar Performance has also been very consistent on the turf with his only out of the money finish coming last time when fourth, beaten less than two lengths by the classy Carson’s Run. While Herchee will likely be involved in the early pace, look for Dashman to be closer to midpack in the first part.

The Canadian shipper My Boy Prince, as well as the French import Evade should also get plenty of support on Saturday. The former should be right out on the early lead, while the latter will be one of the late runners in the field. I like the two favorites here best, with a slight edge to Dashman as the top pick.

My Play 

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Dashman over Herchee, Evade, and My Boy Prince = $30

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Herchee, Evade, and My Boy Prince over Dashman = $30

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Race #11 Md Sp Wt $120,000 1 1/16-Miles Dirt - 5:55pm EST

Knocking on the door locally in each of her last two races, Girl Math looks to go favored in a promising field of nine juvenile fillies going 1 1/16-miles in this maiden race at Churchill Downs.

The daughter of hot young sire McKinzie finished a decent fourth in her debut at Ellis Park, before running second in each of her last two starts at Churchill Downs. In her last, she ran two-turns and fought all the way to the wire, ultimately losing by a neck. She will not be my top pick in this one, but is very likely to run another solid race under new rider Flavien Prat and finish in the top three.

Her top rival in this 1 1/16-mile test could be the Steve Asmussen-trained Seraphia. The daughter of Gun Runner was only third best in her career debut at Keeneland, but probably faced some talented fillies in that 11-horse field. She is likely to improve in her second career start. 

Another to watch out for in this maiden race is first time starter Calamity. Trainer Brad Cox hits with a high percentage of debut runners, and this daughter of Gun Runner has a series of nice works going back to the summer. Bred to have ability, I look for her to show her talent right out of the gate. She is the top pick.

My Play

• $5 Trifecta Part Wheel - Calamity over Girl Math over Seraphia, Golden Gamble, and Madeline’s Promise = $15

• $5 Trifecta Part Wheel - Calamity over Seraphia, Golden Gamble, and Madeline’s Promise over Girl Math = $15

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