Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Fair Grounds

A blockbuster racing card on Saturday at Fair Grounds features eight stakes races and is headlined by the $1 million Louisiana Derby. The Grade 2 test serves as one of the major preps for the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. Leading the way in the signature race at the New Orleans oval will be the stakes winners John Hancock and Built. 

The fillies will counter with the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. The 1 1/16-mile affair is topped by the current Kentucky Oaks favorite Good Cheer. Other highlights from the afternoon card at Fair Grounds include the return of the champion Sierra Leone in the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic, as well as a deep field of older turf males squaring off in the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Classic. Without further ado, let's get to my analysis, top picks, and suggested wagers for this excellent day of racing from Louisiana.

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Race #9 New Orleans Classic (Grade 2) $500,000 1 1/8-Miles Dirt- 5:04pm EST

When last seen, Sierra Leone was storming to victory in the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic. On Saturday, the champion will make his much anticipated return to the races in the $500,000 New Orleans Classic at Fair Grounds. 

The powerfully built 4-year-old son of Gun Runner won his only previous start over the track when he scored in the Grade 2 Risen Star in his sophomore debut. A confirmed late runner, there looks to be enough early speed in here to provide ample opportunity for Sierra Leone to come with his potent stretch kick. It’s hard to look past the champion, but there are some interesting others in the field.

Hall of Fame is a strong second choice on the morning line for trainer Steve Asmussen. After a sizable layoff, the Gun Runner colt has come back with three straight wins at Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds. Well beaten in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby last year, he earned his first stakes win last month in the Grade 3 Mineshaft.

Most of the others in the field have the credentials to make some noise on Saturday. Perhaps the most intriguing of the bunch is the outside drawn Bishops Bay. Never worse than second in seven career starts, the Brad Cox-trained runner has come back in solid form since a long layoff and still should be relatively fresh for this big test. Overall, however, I cannot look past the class of Sierra Leone. He will be the top pick.

My Play

• $20 Daily Double Part Wheel - Sierra Leone with Redistricting and Spirit of St Louis = $40

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Race #10 Muniz Memorial Classic (Grade 2) $300,000 1 1/8-Miles Turf- 5:36pm EST

Fresh off a victory in the $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf, Spirit of St Louis will be in search of a third straight stakes win when he headlines a field of twelve older turf males in the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Classic on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

Likely to be the preferred half of a strong pair for trainer Chad Brown, the New York-bred gelding is as consistent as they come. The 6-year-old son of Medaglia d’Oro has won 8-of-11 starts on the grass and was second in two of those losses. Coming in off the biggest win of his career, he will once again look to use his strong late rally to remain perfect at the 9-furlong distance.

His most dangerous opponent could be his stablemate Redistricting. The English-bred son of Kingman has only raced six times in his career, but has shown plenty of promise. Getting over some physical setbacks, he returned to the races last fall with two strong efforts when a close second in both the Knickerbocker in New York and the Seabiscuit in California. Freshened for this, he should be a big threat on Saturday.

Brilliant Berti is another one who knows the way to the winner’s circle. A winner of five of his last six races for trainer Cherie DeVaux, he collected three stakes wins last year as a 3-year-old. This will be his first try against older horses. It’s a strong field, but I really liked what I saw from Redistricting late last year. He is my top pick.

My Plays

• $5 Exacta Box - Redistricting, Spirit of St Louis, and Brilliant Berti = $30

• $5 Exacta Box - Redistricting, Spirit of St Louis, and Higgins Boat = $30

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Race #11 Fair Grounds Oaks (Grade 2) $400,000 1 1/16-Miles Dirt- 6:08pm EST

A strong winner of each of her first five career starts, Good Cheer will look to roll to the Kentucky Oaks as the unbeaten favorite but first she must clear one final hurdle when she faces eight other sophomore fillies in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks on Saturday.

A daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, the heavy morning line favorite has yet to be truly tested while collecting three consecutive stakes victories. Trained by Brad Cox, she has won by an average margin of better than seven lengths. In her one start this season, Good Cheer dominated her opposition in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra over the track.

The second choice on the morning line is the Louisiana-bred filly Secret Faith. She is a narrow defeat away from being perfect in eight career starts. She has yet to run beyond 7 furlongs, however, and all of her races before this one have come against restricted company. She is a nice filly, but this will be a huge test.

I believe the filly with a better chance to upset Good Cheer is the very lightly raced Ahavah. A half-sister to the excellent mare Vahva, she looked the part of quality when she won a fast maiden race last month at Fair Grounds. She has speed to go right to the lead and I believe she has talent to be a graded stakes winner. She is my top pick to pull off an upset.

My Play 

• $20 Win & Place - Ahavah = $40

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Race #12 Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) $1,000,000 1 3/16-Miles Dirt- 6:42pm EST

Unbeaten in two starts, John Hancock has been installed as the morning line against nine other Kentucky Derby hopefuls in Saturday’s $1 million Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

Trained by Brad Cox, the son of Constitution came right out of a sharp maiden victory to take down the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last time out. That win was flattered when the horse he turned away, Owen Almighty, returned to easily win the Tampa Bay Derby in his next start. John Hancock will need to use his speed early breaking from the rail in this one.  

Both Built and Caldera should also get plenty of betting support in this 1 3/16-mile test. The former is a stakes winner over the track and has finished second and third in two graded stakes races since that victory. While the latter was a good looking winner of a maiden race two starts back at Oaklawn Park, before a wide trip, narrow defeat last time in the Sunland Park Derby for trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

There are numerous interesting longshot possibilities in the Louisiana Derby, but the horse with odds that interests me most is Chunk of Gold. He has run three deceptively good races to begin his career and in each he has come with a strong late kick. With plenty of early speed, and a long Fair Grounds stretch, I like his chances to be finishing best of all. He is my top pick.

My Plays

• $2 Exacta Part Wheel - Chunk of Gold and Caldera over ALL = $36

• $2 Exacta Part Wheel - ALL over Chunk of Gold  = $18

• $5 Exacta Box - Chunk of Gold, Caldera, and John Hancock  = $30

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