Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Tampa Bay Downs

The 2025 Kentucky Derby trail continues on Saturday with the running of the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby. Although the Grade 3 test has attracted a smallish field of seven, there are several in the race that could be considered serious candidates for the first Saturday in May. Leading the way is the two-time Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick, who will be making his first start as a 3-year-old. The highly regarded Patch Adams figures to vie for favoritism, with Owen Almighty and Hill Road also getting plenty of wagering support.

Supporting the signature race at Tampa Bay Downs will be a trio of interesting graded stakes races. The multi-millionaire Skippylongstocking faces off with the consistent Most Wanted among older males in the Grade 3 Challenger, while female turf runners Saffron Moon and Nitrogen lead the way in the Grade 2 Hillsborough and Grade 3 Florida Oaks, respectively. Without further ado, let's get to my analysis, top picks, and suggested wagers for this excellent card of racing.

Race #5 Challenger Stakes (Grade 3) $125,000 1-Mile Dirt - 2:21 pm EST

Following a familiar pattern, Skippylongstocking will be in search of a victory in the Grade 3 Challenger Stakes for a third consecutive year when he faces seven other older males on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs.

A 6-year-old son of Exaggerator, Skippylongstocking has amassed over $3.3 million in earnings while collecting seven graded stakes victories since making his career debut in the summer of 2021. Having been beaten in the $3 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) for three straight seasons, he has bounced back with wins in the Challenger the last two years. A tactical sort, he will break from the outside on Saturday and is the class of the race.

A third consecutive win in the 1 1/16-mile Challenger is far from a sure thing, however. Standing in the way of Skippylongstocking will be Most Wanted. From the powerhouse barn of Brad Cox, the 4-year-old Candy Ride colt won his first four career starts last year before running a game second against older horses in the Grade 2 Clark last fall. This will be his first start in 2025.

Patriot Spirit looks like a logical third choice here. Coming off a good second  in a stakes race over the track last out, the 2025 Illinois Derby winner will pick up Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle on Saturday. I suspect that the race will come down to the top two, and between them I side with the class and experience of Skippylongstocking. He is the top pick.

My Play

• $50 Win - Skippylongstocking = $50

Visit TwinSpires and Get $200 Sign-Up Bonus

Race #9 Hillsborough Stakes (Grade 2) $225,000 1 1/8-Miles Turf - 4:31 pm EST

Trainer Chad Brown is especially difficult to deny in any female turf race and has won the Grade 2 Hillsborough Stakes six times before. He will look to add a seventh victory in the race when he sends out three of the ten fillies and mares entered in the 1 1/8-mile turf race at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday.

All three of Brown’s runners are in with a shot including stakes winners Spaliday and Venencia, but Saffron Moon is the one who should be most backed by bettors. A lightly raced 6-year-old, she is coming of hand of late and was a good looking winner of the Grade 3 Endeavor Stakes over the course five weeks ago. She will look to time a similar big, late move on Saturday with Flavien Prat riding.

If Brown does not win another Hillsborough on Saturday it could be a mare making her U.S. debut who derails him. Gimme a Nother was a proven star in South Africa. She was perfect in seven starts in her native land, all coming on the turf. In her two most recent starts, she easily won against Group 1 competition. This will be her first race in 11 months, however, and is now trained by Graham Motion.

Other capable runners in this Grade 2 test include last year’s winner Sparkle Blue, who is also trained by Motion, and Eternal Silence, who won nicely last out in the summer for trainer Christophe Clement. It’s a pretty wide open race, but I am going to go with the South African import. Gimme a Nother is my top pick.

My Plays

• $10 Daily Double Part Wheel - Gimme a Nother with Nitrogen and Pretty Lavish = $20

• $5 Daily Double Part Wheel - Saffron Moon, Sparkle Blue, and Eternal Silence with Nitrogen and Pretty Lavish = $30

Claim $200 Sign-Up Offer at TwinSpires

Race #10 Florida Oaks (Grade 3) $200,000 1 1/16-Miles Turf - 5:03 pm EST

A solid third in back-to-back Grade 1 races last fall, Nitrogen looks for her second consecutive stakes win this year while facing eleven other sophomore turf fillies in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs.

A first out winner for trainer Mark Casse on the Woodbine turf, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro came right back to narrowly lose the Natalma Stakes (G1) in her next start. Things got no easier, as she went from there to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) in California and checked in a very credible third. In her first start of this year, she showed her class with a late burst to win the Ginger Brew Stakes. She is the one to beat here.

The second choice on the morning line and one of two for Chad Brown is the stakes winner Opulent Restraint. After a decent effort in her debut, the Irish-bred filly won her next two. Most recently, she scored a game victory in the Chelsey Flower Stakes at Aqueduct back in October.

Two others who deserve a look on Saturday include Pretty Lavish and Love You Anyway. The former is unbeaten in two starts, including a local allowance win. She looked very good swinging out wide from the rail before mowing them down to win in her American debut. The latter will be a big longshot, but ran well in defeat in her only career start for a trainer, Rusty Arnold, who I really like with turf horses. I cannot look past Nitrogen, however, as my top pick.

My Plays 

• $5 Exacta Box - Nitrogen, Pretty Lavish, and Opulent Restraint = $30

• $5 Exacta Box - Nitrogen, Pretty Lavish, and Love You Anyway = $30

Register at TwinSpires for $200 Bonus

Race #11 Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3) $400,000 1 1/16-Miles Dirt - 5:34 pm EST

Trying to bounce back from a disappointing run at the Breeders’ Cup, the two-time Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick headlines a field of seven Kentucky Derby hopefuls in Saturday’s $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3).

Whether it was the moderate early pace, two turns for the first time, or the Del Mar racing surface, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) was not the best performance from Chancer McPatrick. The McKinzie colt had established himself as a topnotch juvenile on the East Coast with three nice wins to begin his career, including the Hopeful at Saratoga and the Champagne at Belmont Park. The late-runner will add blinkers for his sophomore debut in the Tampa Bay Derby. 

Although he has only won once in three starts, Patch Adams remains a very highly regarded young runner. The son of Into Mischief broke his maiden in his second career start by more than ten lengths in very fast time while going 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs. In his stakes debut, he bobbled and was farther back than expected, before ultimately finishing a competitive fourth in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park.

Two others who cannot be ignored are Owen Almighty and Hill Road. The latter now resides in the barn of Chad Brown after coming from Europe to rally for third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in his only start in the U.S. The former was a stakes winner last year and should offer very good value despite already running two very good races at Tampa Bay Downs already this year. As the fourth choice on the morning line, Owen Almighty is my top pick.

My Plays

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Owen Almighty over Chancer McPatrick, Hill Road, and Patch Adams = $30

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Chancer McPatrick, Hill Road, and Patch Adams over  Owen Almighty = $30

Grab $200 Sign-Up Bonus at TwinSpires