Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Fair Grounds

The road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby heats up with Saturday’s $500,000 Risen Star Stakes. The Grade 2, 9-furlong affair has drawn a field of 13 to Fair Grounds and is part of a six stakes race card at the New Orleans oval. The deepest qualifying points race of the year so far is led by the returning Grade 1 winner East Avenue, who will be making his first start since losing all chance at the start as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last November.

Like East Avenue, Good Cheer is a highly regarded Godolphin homebred. The undefeated filly will be favored in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra for Kentucky Oaks prospects. Other graded stakes races on the card include older males going on the dirt in the Grade 3 Mineshaft Stakes, and on the turf in the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Stakes. Without further ado, let’s get to my top picks and plays from this strong afternoon of racing from Tampa Bay Downs.

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Race #11 Mineshaft Stakes (Grade 3) $250,000 1 1/16-Miles Dirt- 6:00pm EST

In a wide open edition of the $250,000 Mineshaft Stakes (G3), the returning Catching Freedom is the 3/1 morning line favorite against seven other older males on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

The  4-year-old son of Constitution has not won since scoring in last year’s $1 million Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. A solid fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and third in the Preakness (G1) followed, but now he has been off for eight months. Trained by Brad Cox, he is working well for his return and is the class of the race, but the stretch runner has not found a soft landing for his return.

Another horse returning from a layoff in the 8 1/2-furlong Mineshaft is Batten Down. A supremely bred son of Tapit, he has only been away from the races for just over three months. The winner of the Grade 3 Ohio Derby over Catching Freedom last season, he has much more early speed than the morning line choice and is likely to only get better with maturity. This is a race with some other speed, however.

You could make a case for every other horse in the field, which includes Hall of Fame. The Gun Runner colt has shown flashes of brilliance in his six-race career but was not able to get it done in important Kentucky Derby preps last year. With two strong wins since returning, he should be primed for his return to stakes racing. It’s a tough race, but I am going with a maturing Batten Down, who I believe could be primed for a big season. He is the top pick.

My Play

• $10 Daily Double Part Wheel - Batten Down with What Say Thee, Gigante, Unit Economics, and Taking Candy = $40

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Race #12 Fair Grounds Stakes (Grade 3) $175,000 1 1/8-Miles Turf- 6:30pm EST

Gigante is a horse who likes to win. The Steve Asmussen-trained runner will look to make it three straight stakes wins at Fair Grounds when he tops a field of ten older turf males in Saturday’s Grade 3 Fair Grounds Stakes. 

A 5-year-old son of Not This Time, Gigante has won 8-of-19 career starts on both turf and dirt. In his most recent starts, the Virginia-bred won the Buddy Diliberto Memorial on the grass and then the Colonel E. R. Bradley on a sloppy main track after the race was taken off the turf. This looks like a tougher field than the last two, but he is certainly one of the main contenders here.

Of his top challengers, Taking Candy, What Say Thee, and Relampago Verde all deserve serious consideration. The first two are stakes experienced runners who sport solid turf records for trainers who win often in grass stakes. Finally, Relampago Verde has been a very consistent runner on both surfaces for trainer Kenny McPeek, but I think he might be best on turf.

The one I like most of all in the Fair Grounds Stakes, however, is Unit Economics. The Chad Brown-trained runner has continued to improve while finishing first or second in six straight races, including a just miss last time at Gulfstream Park. With a nice turn of foot, I look for him to get a good trip under top rider Flavien Prat. He is the top pick.

My Plays

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Unit Economics over What Say Thee, Gigante, Relampago Verde, and Taking Candy = $40

• $5 Exacta Part Wheel - What Say Thee, Gigante, Relampago Verde, and Taking Candy over Unit Economics = $20

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Race #13 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (Grade 2) $300,000 1 1/16-Miles Dirt- 7:00pm EST

To say Good Cheer has done nothing wrong in her career to date would be an understatement. She will look to make it five wins without a loss as the headliner of the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds. 

With eyes on bigger prizes to come, namely the Kentucky Oaks in eleven weeks, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro will make her 3-year-old debut here for trainer Brad Cox. The likely heavy favorite was an impressive winner of all her starts at 2, including two stakes races at Churchill Downs. She won her four starts last year by an average winning margin of just over eight lengths. This will be her first start in eleven weeks.

If Good Cheer is not at her very best in her sophomore debut, a filly who could take advantage is Simply Joking. While the big favorite has not raced in a while, the daughter of Practical Joke has won a pair of stakes races locally in her first two career starts. Trained by Whit Beckman, she also looks to be the speed of the race on Saturday which makes her even more dangerous.

Of the others, Anonima could prove the most dangerous. One of two in the field for trainer Kenny McPeek, the improving Sharp Azteca has won two straight at the distance at Oaklawn Park and Fair Grounds. While Good Cheer is an opposing presence here, I am willing to take a small shot against her in her return. The talented Simply Joking will be my top pick.

My Play 

• $5 Daily Double Part Wheel - Simply Joking and Good Cheer with American Promise, East Avenue, and Built = $30

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Race #14 Risen Star Stakes (Grade 2) $500,000 1 1/8-Miles Dirt- 7:30pm EST

Off tardy and beaten as the favorite in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), East Avenue will look to make amends when he faces a dozen other Kentucky Derby prospects in the $500,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds.

After a very impressive debut victory at Ellis Park, the son of Medaglia d’Oro went from strength to strength by rolling to an authoritative win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity last fall at Keeneland. Off of those two big wins, the Brendan Walsh-trainee was the choice in the biggest race of the year for juveniles, but lost all chance at the start. Working well for his return for trainer Brendan Walsh, he is the one to beat here.

Built could be the second choice in the 9-furlong Risen Star Stakes over Jonathan’s Way and Vassimo. The son of Hard Spun has been very good trainer Wayne Catalano in his last three starts. In two starts at Fair Grounds, he easily won the Gun Runner Stakes before just missing last time out in the Grade 3 Lecomte.

An interesting long shot possibility on Saturday is the D. Wayne Lukas-trained American Promise. More experienced than the rest, he has been coming around of late before getting off to a bad start in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. He should improve off that effort and could surprise here. Overall, however, I like East Avenue as the most talented colt in the race. He is my top pick.

My Plays

• $5 Exacta Box - East Avenue, Built, and American Promise = $30

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - East Avenue over Built, Vassimo, and American Promise = $30

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