Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Fair Grounds, December 21

On the Saturday before Christmas, it’s a great time to handicap Fair Grounds. The New Orleans oval features a card with eight stakes races, including early preps and points qualifiers for the 2025 editions of the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks. The Derby hopefuls will be headlined by the recent impressive maiden winner Admiral Dennis, as he takes on a compact but talented field in the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes. 

Meanwhile, Kentucky Oaks hopefuls will be represented by a wide-open eight-horse field in the $100,000 Untapable Stakes, with Golden Gamble listed as the morning line favorite. Other stakes races I will zero in on include the Tenacious Stakes for older males, and the Sugar Bowl Stakes for sophomore sprinters. Without further ado, let’s get to my top picks and plays for this excellent card of racing at Fair Grounds.

Race #4 Sugar Bowl Stakes $100,000 6-Furlongs Dirt - 2:30pm EST

Second in back-to-back stakes races in Kentucky, Tough Catch is the morning line favorite among a half-dozen 3-year-old sprinters in the $100,000 Sugar Bowl Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

Trained by Dallas Stewart, the son of Complexity was a agate-to-wire debut winner at Saratoga back in July, before fading out of the picture in the Grade 1 Hopeful in his second career start. In his two subsequent races, he came from mid-pack to gain second in both the Bowman Mill at Keeneland and the Ed Brown at Churchill Downs. In a race without clear speed, he should find himself a pace presence on Saturday.

The second choice on the morning line is Countthebrave from the barn of Ignacio Correas. He has only two lifetime starts, but both were good. He set strong early fractions in his debut and was a game victor over a next-out winner at Churchill Downs. More recently, the son of Speightster just missed getting up in an allowance sprint at Keeneland.

Contrabandist raced against tough competition at Saratoga, before finding some success at Delta Downs in his last two. His recent form merits respect. The two morning line choices look best here, however, and I will side with the better value on Countthebrave. He is the top pick.

My Play 

• $20 Exacta Box - Countthebrave and Tough Catch = $40

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Race #7 Gun Runner Stakes $100,000 1 1/16-Miles Dirt - 4:00pm EST

The Kentucky Derby trail through New Orleans kicks off on Saturday, and the impressive maiden winner Admiral Dennis is the morning line choice in the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds.

Trained by Brad Cox, the sophomore son of Constitution was a gaining third in his career debut when sprinting at Churchill Downs. Bet down in his second career race, Admiral Dennis stalked, pounced, and pulled away late in a one-mile test at the same track six weeks ago. This will mark his first stakes try, as well as his first attempt around two turns.

Chief among his opposition here could come from the Steve Asmussen charge Magnitude. Sandwiched around a failed first stakes attempt in the Iroquois, the son of Not This Time has two nice wins in Kentucky. Last time out, he was a game winner of a Churchill Downs allowance race in which the runner-up finished 15-lengths clear of the third horse.

The three other horses in the field, Built, Render Judgment, and Chris’s Revenge all are in with a shot. Especially interesting in Built, who has drawn on the rail and has solid early speed. His maiden win at Keeneland last time was a solid performance. Overall, though, I look for the win to go to one of the top two choices. Admiral Dennis is my top pick.

My Play

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Admiral Dennis with Magnitude, Built, and Render Judgment = $30

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Race #9 Tenacious Stakes $100,000 1 1/16-Miles Dirt - 5:00pm EST

A romping winner of a graded stakes race over the track back in January, Saudi Crown looks to return to his winning ways when he headlines a field of eight entered in the $100,000 Tenacious Stakes at Fair Grounds.

He has twice failed in Breeders’ Cup attempts, but the Brad Cox-trained 4-year-old has looked very tough elsewhere. Among his five career victories in eleven starts includes a win in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby in September of 2023. He’s added two more stakes wins this year, including a near 6-length runaway in the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes. He likes to be on the front early, but there is other speed in the race.

Track Phantom is the second choice on the morning line and also has plenty of early speed. Away since fading after setting a fast early pace in the Kentucky Derby, the 3-year-old Quality Road colt was a game second in a fast allowance race last month at Churchill Downs. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he scored stakes wins last winter at Fair Grounds in the Gun Runner and the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes.

Other serious contenders here include the stakes winning pair of Warrior Johnny and Velocitor, as well as the talented sophomore Kinetic. The latter is a late developing son of Street Sense, who has won three straight at two turns for trainer Brad Cox. This will be a class test, but should get a very nice pace set up on Saturday. Saudi Crown is a deserving favorite here, but I am going to take a shot against him. Kinetic is the top pick in this one.

My Play

• $20 Win & Place - Kinetic = $40

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Race #11 Untapable Stakes $100,000 1 Mile & 70 Yards Dirt - 6:00pm EST

Fresh off an eye-catching score to break her maiden, Golden Gamble will look to become a stakes winner on Saturday against seven other Kentucky Oaks hopefuls in the $100,000 Untapable Stakes at Fair Grounds.

A promising third in her unveiling for trainer Kenny McPeek, the daughter of Laoban came back four weeks later and ran away and hid from her competition, winning the 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Churchill Downs by 9-lengths. A repeat effort could make her very tough in her stakes debut.

The competition for the favorite runs deep in this one, including Amarth and California Sunset. The former was bothered in her debut, but has come back with consecutive wins at Keeneland and Churchill Downs in her next two. The latter, meanwhile, improved off a fourth-place debut to win second time out in a maiden at Churchill Downs, defeating Golden Gamble in the process.

It’s hard to throw out any of the others in this wide-open affair. The most interesting of the bunch is Paris Lily. A Godolphin homebred for trainer Brendan Walsh, she found plenty of trouble in her debut, but was running well late. Next out, she was a game winner on the rail in a one-mile maiden at Churchill Downs. Looking for some value here, she is the top pick.

My Plays

• $5 Exacta Box -  Paris Lily, Golden Gamble, and California Sunset = $30

• $5 Exacta Box -  Paris Lily, Golden Gamble, and Her Laugh = $30

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