Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Saratoga, August 24

The sensational filly Thorpedo Anna taking on the boys may be the biggest story, but the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes is much more than that. With every horse in the race being a stakes winner already, including four Grade 1 winners, I believe this year’s Mid-Summer Derby at Saratoga is the race of the year. Dornoch, Thorpedo Anna, Fierceness, and Sierra Leone lead the way in the 1 1/4-mile classic, which will have championship implications for several Eclipse Awards.

Such a big race deserves a big supporting card, and Saturday’s menu of races will deliver. Four other Grade 1 races will proceed the big one, beginning with Measured Time and Silver Knot topping the Sword Dancer. Vahva is the one they all have to beat in the Ballerina, Mullikin will look to extend his winning streak in the Forego, and Book’em Danno is the morning line favorite in a loaded edition of the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial. Without further ado, let's get to my picks and plays on this fantastic card racing at Saratoga.

Race #9 Sword Dancer Stakes (Grade 1) $750,000 1 1/2-Miles Turf - 3:44 pm EST

Trainer Charlie Appleby holds a very strong hand in Saturday’s Grade 1 Sword Dancer, as he sends out the formidable Godolphin duo of Silver Knott and Measured Time in the 1 1/2-mile turf test at Saratoga.

Silver Knott merits top billing as the morning line favorite off of three consecutive graded stakes victories while running long on the grass. The millionaire will be moving up to Grade 1 company after winning a trio of Grade 2 races in the Elkhorn at Keeneland, the Man O’ War at Aqueduct, and the Bowling Green four weeks ago at Saratoga. A 4-year-old son of Lope de Vega, he should be prominent throughout.

Chief among his competition will be his stablemate Measured Time. The English-bred son of Frankel has won six of eight career starts and became a Group 1 winner early this year in Dubai. In his first race in the U.S. he earned his second win at the highest level with an impressive score in the 1 3/16-mile Manhattan at Saratoga back in June. 

Often a bridesmaid but rarely a bride, Soldier Rising could be the most dangerous rival to the Appleby pair. He rallied for second behind Silver Knott last month in the Bowling Green in his first race of the year. Also a son of Frankel, he has finished second in six of his last seven starts, including last year’s Sword Dancer. The win spot should come down to Silver Knott or Measured Time. I favor the former at the distance. Silver Knott is my top pick.

My Plays

• $20 Trifecta - Silver Knott over Measured Time over Soldier Rising = $20

• $10 Trifecta - Silver Knott over Soldier Rising over Measured Time = $10

• $10 Trifecta - Measured Time over Silver Knott over Soldier Rising = $10

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Race #11 Forego Stakes (Grade 1) $500,000 7-Furlongs Dirt - 4:55 pm EST

Having finished third behind a pair of talented, Travers-bound colts in his last start, Timeout looks to be the one to beat among a full field of allowance males going 9-furlongs on the Saratoga main track on Saturday.

Trained by Rudolph Brisset, the lightly raced son of Violence has finished first or second in all but one of his eight career starts. This season, the 4-year-old has been perfect in three starts. The last out winner of the Nerud Stakes at Aqueduct, he won each of those three at a different track and in impressive style. Firing on all cylinders right now, he appears poised to earn his first career Grade 1 victory. 

The two horses that are next in the morning line must be respected in this as well. At his best, Gun Pilot is a big threat here, but the Grade 1 winning son of Gun Runner can be a little hit or miss. Cagliostro, meanwhile, will be cutting down to a sprint distance for the first time in two years, but has proven himself a nice handicap horse this year. Most recently, he ran a big race to win the one mile Hanshin Stakes at Churchill Downs.

A longshot with potential to run a big race is the Phil Bauer-trained Angkor. The veteran son of Anchor Down has been keeping very good company in Kentucky and running well. Coming off a very good second at Kelly’s Landing in his last start, I see him as a must use at very attractive odds. Having said that, I will go with Mullikin as the most likely winner and my top pick.

My Plays

• $5 Exacta Box - Mullikin, Angkor, and Cagliastro = $30

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Mullikin over Angkor and Cagliastro = $20

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Race #12 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes (Grade 1) $500,000 7-Furlongs Dirt - 5:30 pm EST

Both Book’em Danno and Prince of Monaco ran big in their first meeting, which came back in June in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. The pair will renew their rivalry on Saturday at Saratoga when they headline a loaded field of eleven entered in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. 

As the winner of the Woody Stephens, Book’em Danno rates the edge as a slight favorite in the 7-furlong test. The New Jersey-bred son of Bucchero has only been beaten twice in his eight start career, and both of those were narrow defeats when stretched out to a mile. Coming off a sharp win last time at Monmouth, it’s hard to look past him as the horse to beat.

Prince of Monaco, meanwhile, is a Grade 1 winner at the 7-furlong distance himself. After starting slowly in the Woody Stephens, he finished with a flourish to get with a half-length of Book’em Danno on the wire. Off since that race in early June, this will be the Bob Baffert-trained runner’s second start of 2024.

Numerous others in the field merit respect, led by the graded stakes winning trio of Domestic Product, Timberlake, and World Record. The first two are very dangerous, but the latter is the most dangerous, in my opinion. The speed of the speed, World Record blitzed a good field last out at Saratoga, and will be the one they all have to catch here. In a wide open race, World Record will be my top pick to pull off a mild upset.

My Play 

• $5 Daily Double - World Record, Book’em Danno, and Prince of Monaco with  Corporate Power, Thorpedo Anna, Dornoch, and Sierra Leone = $60

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Race #13 Travers Stakes (Grade 1) $1,250,000 1 1/4-Miles Dirt - 6:10 pm EST

In quite possibly the strongest edition of the Travers Stakes in the 21st Century, Thorpedo Anna, Dornoch, Fierceness, and Sierra Leone will do battle among a deep and talented field of eight set for the $1.25 million, Grade 1 affair.

Facing seven stakes winning males is no easy task for a young filly, but Thorpedo Anna might be the right horse to get the job done. A dominating winner of four important races against fillies to begin her season, she deserves a shot to take on the boys and will be well backed to become the first filly to win the Travers in more than a century.

Vying for favoritism with the filly will be the current leader of the 3-year-old male division, Dornoch, and last year’s 2-year-old champion, Fierceness. The former comes in off back-to-back Grade 1 victories, having tallied the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga and the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park in his last two. His early speed will be tested by the latter, just to his outside, who impressively won over the track last time in the Jim Dandy. 

If the speed is too taxing on all three favorites, both Sierra Leone and Corporate Power should be ready to take advantage. Sierra Leone has a powerful late run that has put him in the mix in every race he has run. Having missed the Kentucky Derby by a diminishing nose, he is a big threat here. As is the longshot Corporate Power, who is improving with every start for trainer Shug McGaughey. Given his juicy odds here, he will be the one I zero in on for great value as my top pick upset selection. 

My Plays

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Corporate Power over Thorpedo Anna, Dornoch, and Sierra Leone = $30

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Thorpedo Anna, Dornoch, and Sierra Leone over Corporate Power = $30

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