Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Saratoga, August 17

With Thorpedo Anna taking on the boys in next week’s $1.25 million Travers Stakes, this Saturday’s Grade 1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga has suddenly become a much more interesting race. With the dominant filly in the division away, a field of eight sophomore fillies have entered the 1 1/4-mile test. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher will have a strong pair in the $600,000 affair with Grade 1 winner Candied and recent stakes winner Miss Justify.

Sophomore fillies will also be on display on the turf on Saturday with the running of the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes. Carded one race before the Alabama, the 1 1/16-mile grass race has attracted a field of eleven and is headlined by the Cherie DeVaux-trained She Feels Pretty. With those two graded stakes preceded by a pair of strong allowance races, there should be plenty of opportunity to cash tickets.

Without further ado, let's get to my picks and plays on this solid card racing at the Upstate New York oval.

Race #7 Allowance $115,000 1 3/16-Miles Turf - 3:54 PM EST

The returning Freedom Trail is the morning line favorite, but with five horses at 6/1 or less, you know this turf race for older males is a wide-open affair. Going 1 3/16-miles over the Saratoga turf course, this looks like a nice betting opportunity if you can nail down a winner.

An experienced stakes horse, the son of Collected was a juvenile stakes winner in 2022. Last year, he was competitive but winless in six starts. Five of those efforts came in stakes races. When last seen, he finished fourth in the Grade 2 Hill Prince, but that was nine months ago.

Chief among his competition on Saturday is a lightly raced 3-year-old from the strong barn of Chad Brown. Catch a Wave has won half of his four-lifetime starts, all of which have come on the grass. Most recently, the son of Curlin won an allowance race at Aqueduct.

Two other horses I believe have a big shot here are Reckoning Force and Mondego. Both 5/1 on the morning line, the latter has run a number of good turf efforts, including losing last year’s Grade 1 Belmont Derby by just one length. The former is a stakes winner for trainer Brendan Walsh and comes off a sharp second at Churchill Downs in his most recent start. He is my top pick.

My Plays

• $5 Exacta Part Wheel - Reckoning Force and Mondego over Reckoning Force, Mondego, Catch a Wave, and Red Run = $30

• $5 Exacta Part Wheel - Reckoning Force, Mondego, Catch a Wave, and Red Run over Reckoning Force and Mondego = $30

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Race #8 Allowance $110,000 11/8-Miles Dirt - 4:29 PM EST

Having finished third behind a pair of talented, Travers-bound colts in his last start, Timeout looks to be the one to beat among a full field of allowance males going 9-furlongs on the Saratoga main track on Saturday.

Trained by Bill Mott, the lightly raced son of Curlin broke his maiden in his third career start going 9-furlongs at Aqueduct. That score was enough to take a shot in the Curlin Stakes last month where he finished a solid third behind Unmatched Wisdom and Corporate Power. Dropping back to allowance company here, he will have a big shot.

A year older is the New York-bred Donegal Surges. A winner of all three tries against non-stakes competition, the son of Candy Ride finished second last time against fellow state-breds in the Commentator Stakes at Saratoga. The 9-furlong race was his first try farther than sprint races. 

The Brad Cox-trained Rocketeer is also a serious threat here. A winner of his only start last year, the 3-year-old son of Curlin has been knocking on the door in three starts this year. Competitive in the Matt Winn Stakes two starts back, he was a solid second last time at Saratoga. I like the other Curlin 3-year old just a bit better, however. Timeout is my top pick.

My Play

• $50 Win - Timeout = $50

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Race #9 Lake Placid Stakes (Grade 2) $200,000 1 1/16-Miles Turf - 5:04 PM EST

A Grade 1 winner last year, the Cherie DeVaux-trained She Feels Pretty is the one to beat among a full field of eleven 3-year-old grass fillies in Saturday’s Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga.

A winner in three of her five lifetime starts, the daughter of Karakontie won the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine last summer at Woodbine in her second career start. Off that victory, she was the narrowly beaten favorite in the 2023 edition of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. In two starts this season, she romped in the Hilltop Stakes at Pimlico, before finishing a good third in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks.

Her toughest competition could come from the Charlie Appleby runner Beautiful Love, who will be making her first start in the United States. A winner of 2-of-6 in England and Dubai, the Irish-bred filly has yet to run a poor race. This will be her first start since a win at Meydan six months ago. 

Several others in the field merit respect, including a Chad Brown-trained trio, an import for top turf trainer Christophe Clement, and the undefeated filly Proctor Street. Still it is difficult to look past the credentials of the favorite. She Feels Pretty is the top pick in the Lake Placid. 

My Play 

• $20 Exacta Part Wheel - She Feels Pretty over Beautiful Love and Proctor Street = $40

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Race #10 Alabama Stakes (Grade 1) $600,000 1 1/4-Miles Dirt - 6:40 PM EST

The only Grade 1 winner in the field, Candied looks for her second when she headlines a competitive field of eight sophomore fillies who will line up in Saturday’s historic $600,000 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, the daughter of Candy Ride turned in a solid prep for the Alabama when she rallied for second behind the spectacular Thorpedo Anna last time out in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks. Before that, Candied impressively defeated older horses in the Lady’s Secret Stakes at Monmouth Park

Power Squeeze merits serious respect here, as well. The Union Rags filly has already won four stakes this year for trainer Jorge Delgado. In her other two starts she was beaten by Thorpedo Anna. In her last start, she dug in late to get by the talented Sidamara in the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks.

Also trained by Todd Pletcher, Miss Justify has the speed to take the early lead on Saturday. A game winner two starts back at Churchill Downs, she earned her first stakes win nicely last time at Saratoga in the Wilton Stakes. Her stablemate is the one to beat, but I expect a big effort out of Miss Justify here. She will be the top pick to pull off the mild upset in the Alabama.

My Play

• $20 Win & Place - Miss Justify = $40

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