Valspar Championship Predictions: Count on Conners

• This is the final leg of the four-week Florida Swing

• The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook hosts again

• This is the strongest Valspar field in recent memory

Valspar Championship 2025 Odds

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Valspar Championship 2025 Predictions

• Corey Conners each-way (1/4, 5 places) at +2200 with bet365

• Tommy Fleetwood to beat Justin Thomas over 72 holes at -110 with bet365

• Jake Knapp for Top 10 at +600 with BetMGM

Valspar Championship 2025 Intro

After wins for Joe Highsmith (Cognizant Classic), Russell Henley (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and Rory McIlroy (THE PLAYERS Championship), the Florida Swing finishes off with the Valspar Championship.

In previous years, this newish tournament which was first contested in 2000 was rather the poor relation of the Sunshine State’s four-tournament stretch.

But this year the field is stacked with quality.

That could be testament to the quality of the course as for the last two years it’s played harder than the other three layouts on the Florida Swing: PGA National, Bay Hill and Sawgrass.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is, unusually, a par 71 that features five par 3s, the usual four par 5s and nine par 4s.

It measures over 7,300 yards and has Bermuda greens overseeded with Poa.

The tree-lined track is more undulating than a standard Florida layout and rough is a factor too.

Despite its short history - this is the 24th edition - the tournament has already witnessed four dual winners: KJ Choi, Retief Goosen, Paul Casey and Sam Burns.

Americans have won the last four but overseas players lifted the silverware 11 times in the previous 19.

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Last 5 Winners of the Valspar Championship

• No event in 2020 due to the pandemic

Course Notes

• The Copperhead Course, designed by Larry Packard, measures 7,352 yards

• It closes with the “Snake Pit” - two tough par 4s and a 200-yard par 3

• The weather forecast shows gusts on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning

• The last four winners have ranked in the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Putting 

• Vijay Singh (2004) holds the 72-hole record of 266

• Padraig Harrington (2012) has the 18-hole course record of 61

Favorites to Win the Valspar Championship 2025

Justin Thomas (+1200) at bet365

Thomas started the season with three top 10s in five starts including second place at The American Express. But he’s been less secure on the Florida Swing, posting 36th at Bay Hill and 33rd at Sawgrass. And in last week’s PLAYERS, Thomas widened eyes by following up horror opening 78 with a stunning course-record 62 on Friday. At this event he’s posted five top 20s in seven starts, including third in 2022.

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Tommy Fleetwood (+1200) at bet365

The Englishman’s hunt for a first PGA TOUR win continues but, in terms of high-class consistency, few can match him. Starting with his silver medal at The Olympics, Fleetwood has connected 14 top 25s, including T14 at Sawgrass last week and 11th at Bay Hill. With third (2023) and 16th (2022) in two starts here, it will be a shock if that run doesn’t continue although that lack of a ‘W’ will put many off at such a short price.

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Xander Schauffele (+2000) at bet365

It was always going to be tough to follow up his double major winning campaign of 2024 and two months off for injury at the start of 2025 have set him back. Schauffele returned with a reasonable 40th at Bay Hill but he spiralled to 72nd at Sawgrass last week after firing 77-81 on the weekend. A watch and wait approach may be best for now although fifth (2024) and 12th (2022) in two visits here offer encouragement.

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Conners Can Cash in  

Corey Conners has been one of the standouts on the Florida Swing so far.

He started with a third place in tough conditions in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and added sixth at THE PLAYERS last week, shooting four shots lower than winner Rory McIlroy on the weekend.

In those eight rounds at two very testing layouts, he broke par in all of them.

An elite ball striker, his putting has turned a corner too after he put a new blade into the bag at Bay Hill.

Since the switch he’s ranked 13th (Bay Hill) and 21st (Sawgrass) for Strokes Gained: Putting.

Add in accuracy off the tee (3rd for Driving Accuracy at THE PLAYER) and Conners has the full package for this week’s test.

He’s played it twice previously and in the first of those he was the 18, 36 and 54-hole leader.    

Conners, a Florida resident, looks a rock-solid each-way pick at +2200 (1/4, 5 places) with bet365.     

Fleetwood to Beat Thomas

Last week’s 72-match bet landed easily with Daniel Berger (T20) taking down Viktor Hovland (missed cut).

I’m tempted to take on the Norwegian again but he did follow his opening 80 at Sawgrass with a 68 and his opponent in a match is Cam Young, who is also out of form after three missed cuts and a 61st at Sawgrass. 

So, instead, I’ll look to the battle between the two tournament favorites.

Thomas vs Fleetwood is a -110 pick ‘em and it’s the Englishman’s consistency that gets him the vote.

JT fired 78-62-73-73 at Sawgrass so was over par in three of his four rounds. He also lost strokes Off The Tee during his 72 holes.

Fleetwood, by contrast, broke par in three of his four laps of Sawgrass and recorded positive numbers in all the main Strokes Gained categories.  

This one is down to trust and therefore Fleetwood is the call.

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Knapp for Top 10

Like Conners and Fleetwood, Jake Knapp has been strong on the Florida Swing with sixth at the Cognizant (59 in round one!) and 12th at THE PLAYERS.

He ranked 1st for SG: Putting and 1st for Scrambling at Sawgrass so his short game is hot and he’s gained strokes on Approach in his last seven tournaments. 

Back the underrated Knapp for a Top 10 finish at +600 with BetMGM.

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How to Watch the Valspar Championship 2025

• Tournament: Valspar Championship

• Location: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course), Palm Harbor, FL

• Date: Thursday March 20 - Sunday March 23

• How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 2 p.m.-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel/NBC Sports App), Saturday-Sunday 1 p.m.-3 p.m (Golf Channel/NBC Sports App), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC/Peacock) And all four days on Sky Sports