The Tour Championship 2024 Predictions: Schauffele Can Dominate

• The tournament uses a unique ‘Starting Strokes’ system

• World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler starts the week in top spot

• 2024 two-time major winner Xander Schauffele is his nearest rival

The Tour Championship Odds

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNMGM to place your bets at BetMGM and claim up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets.*
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The Tour Championship Picks and Predictions

•  Xander Schauffele each way at +500 with Caesars Sportsbook

•  Billy Horschel each way at +3300 with BetMGM

•  Chris Kirk to beat Matthieu Pavon in round one at -120 with bet365

The Tour Championship Intro

This is no normal week on the golfing calendar.

Not only is it the conclusion to the 2024 PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup, it also has a completely unique system.

Every other week in the sport, every player in the field starts on level-par and their golf for that week alone impacts the result.

In this particular week, the PGA Tour wants to reward performance throughout the season, with a weighting towards the Play Offs.

As a consequence Scottie Scheffler, who leads the rankings, also leads the tournament before anyone launches a shot from the first tee.

It intrigues some, and frustrates others, but bettors are firmly in the group who don’t like the format because it makes for added complexity.

Here is the state of play with starting strokes included:

• -10 Scottie Scheffler

• -8 Xander Schauffele

• -7 Hideki Matsuyama

• -6 Keegan Bradley

• -5 Ludvig Åberg

• -4 Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay

• -3 Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Tony Finau

• -2 Byeong Hun An, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Akshay Bhatia, Robert MacIntyre

• -1 Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Matthieu Pavon, Taylor Pendrith

• E Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Thomas

Who will take the various honors this week? Let’s find out.

East Lake GC Winners

(Note: since 2019 starting strokes have been used - the scores below are what the winner carded that week.)

East Lake GC Course Notes

• It is a par 71 that plays to 7,490 yards

• The layout was designed by Tom Bendelow and Donald Ross

• It features Zoysia grass on the fairways (like TPC Southwind two weeks ago)

• There is Bermuda grass on the greens (also like TPC Southwind)

• The rough is notoriously tangly

• Andrew Green has completed a course renovation

Favorites to Win the Tour Championship

Scottie Scheffler (+110) at BetMGM

The World No. 1 has been superb all 2024. He’s played 19 times and on only three occasions did he fail to make the top 10. Between early March and early August he won seven times in 12 starts. 

Xander Schauffele (+230) at BetMGM

Schauffele has played more than Scheffler (21 times) and he has 15 top 10 finishes. He won the PGA Championship and the British Open, and he held the 54 hole lead in the Players Championship and Wells Fargo Championship ahead of finishing second in both.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1100) at BetMGM

The Japanese golfer thrashed a brilliant 62 to win February’s Genesis Invitational and also won the FedEx St Jude Championship earlier this month but he had to withdraw last week with yet another injury.

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Schauffele Can Prevail

Reports suggest that the course looks very similar after the renovation but word on the fairway is that every green complex is completely different.

Sometimes these claims end up looking foolish so let’s go with course form and Xander Schauffele has a gun record at East Lake.

He was the low 72-hole scorer in 2017, 2020 and 2023. He was second in 2019 and third in 2021. He was sixth in 2022 and seventh in 2018.

Back him each way in the 72-hole scoring (i.e. without starting strokes) with Caesars Sportsbook offering +500.

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Horschel Can Ride the Wave

Billy Horschel will struggle to win the event this week but he can compete in the “without starting strokes” market.

He was a winner in the Corales Puntacana Championship in April, he was second in the British Open last month, seventh in the Wyndham Championship and 10th in the FedEx St Jude Championship.

Meanwhile, in six visits to East Lake he was been a winner, a runner-up and twice finished seventh. 

Back him without starting strokes at +3300 with BetMGM.

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Kirk Can Make a Fast Start

Victory in January’s Sentry Tournament of Champions has helped Chris Kirk make just his second start in the Tour Championship and you suspect he is very happy to be back.

That debut came 10 years ago and he carded a 66 to grab a share of the first-round lead.

He also verified the idea that he likes the track by hanging around all week for fourth place.

We’ve already noted that the Zoysia fairway and Bermuda green combination that the players will face this week is the same they faced two weeks ago at TPC Southwind.

And guess what? Kirk carded a 64 there to grab a solo lead.

In his career he’s grabbed eight first-round leads and seven of them have featured grainy green (either Bermuda or Paspalum).

Over his career he averages one stroke fewer than the Frenchman Matthieu Pavon on Bermuda in the first round and just short of one stroke in all rounds.

Back Kirk at -120 in the bet365 first-round matchbet.

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How to Watch The Tour Championship

• Tournament: The Tour Championship

• Location: East Lake GC, Atlanta, Georgia

• Date: Thursday, August 29 - Sunday, September 1

• How to Watch: Thursday-Friday: 1-6 p.m. (Golf Channel), Saturday: 1-2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 2:30-7 p.m. (NBC), Sunday: noon-1:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 1:30-6 p.m. (NBC). And all four days on ESPN+ and Sky Sports.