The American Express 2025 Predictions: Young to Hit Top Rung

• The pro-am event is played over three different courses

• Americans have won 10 of the last 13 editions

• Pleasant weather suggests the usual low scoring

The American Express 2025 Odds

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The American Express Picks and Predictions

• Cameron Young each-way (1/5, 6 places) at +3500 with BetMGM

• Si Woo Kim to beat J.J. Spaun over 72 holes at -138 with bet365

• Adam Hadwin for Top 10 at +650 with BetMGM

The American Express 2025 Intro

For the first time in 2025, the PGA TOUR ventures onto the US mainland with a trip to California.

Nick Dunlap put himself in the record books here last year when becoming the first amateur to win on TOUR since Phil Mickelson at the Northern Telecom Open in 1991.

A 20-year-old University of Alabama sophomore, Dunlap shot a third-round 60 on the way to setting a tournament record of 29-under.

As an amateur he had to forfeit the $1.5m prize, that hefty haul going the way of runner-up Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

Dunlap is back to defend his title in a tournament that uses three separate courses over the first 54 holes - the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament and La Quinta Country Club. They’re listed in order of difficulty.

The Stadium Course hosts the final round (details of par and yardages listed below).

Each pro has an amateur partner for the first three days but it’s pros only for Sunday’s closer.

Dunlap became the 10th American winner in the last 13 editions when hoisting the silverware in 2024, the exceptions in that run Spain’s Jon Rahm (2018 and 2023) and South Korea’s Si Woo Kim (2021).

So far, it’s the internationals who have dominated the first two weeks of the 2025 PGA TOUR season with Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama winning The Sentry and Canadian Nick Taylor the Sony Open.          

Last 5 Winners of The American Express

Course Notes

• The Pete Dye Stadium Course is a par 72 that measures 7,210 yards

• The Nicklaus Tournament course is a par 72 that measures 7,147 yards

• La Quinta is a par 72 that measures 7,060 yards

• David Duval (PGA West) and Adam Hadwin (La Quinta) have both shot 59s here

• Nick Dunlap shot the 72-hole record of 259 in 2024

• Good weather is forecast, with little wind, sunshine and temperatures in the low 70s  

Favorites to win The American Express

Justin Thomas (+1200) at bet365

Thomas had a frustrating experience at The Sentry, shooting himself out of contention early but coming back on the weekend (68-63) to finish 26th. He’s made the top six in three of his last four starts in the Golden State and that includes third place in this event last year when he shot a blistering Saturday 61 at the Stadium Course.

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Sungjae Im (+1200) at bet365

For Sungjae Im, The Sentry was a continuation of the strong form he showed at the end of 2024. The South Korean showed off a sharp short game (4th in both SG: Putting and Around The Green) to finish third, really hitting the birdie trail over the final 36 holes with laps of 62-65. He’s connected six straight top 25s in this event, four of those top 12s.

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Patrick Cantlay (+1600) at bet365

Cantlay, a local Californian, opened with a 1-over 74 in The Sentry a fortnight ago but rounds of 64-65-68 showed the festive rust came off fast. He finished runner in this event in 2021 and was ninth in the two years either side. Twelve months ago he threatened another top 10 but slumped in the final round. Cantlay has six top fours and five other top 15s in his last 15 starts in California so is comfortable in home surroundings.

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Young ready to make Breakthrough 

With seven runners-up finishes in his still brief PGA TOUR career, Cameron Young knows what frustration feels like.

But it’s surely a matter of when rather than if and this could be a great opportunity for the 27-year-old to get his first PGA TOUR win.

He’s racked up all those second places from just 74 starts and has shown he can live with the very best by posting a second, a third and three other top 10s from just 14 appearances in the Majors. 

Young had some health issues to overcome last season but after playing in two of the silly season events in December, he came out and finished eighth in The Sentry after four rounds of 5-under or better.

On the stats, he ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and 2nd for SG: Putting so his short game is sharp.

A strong driver of the ball, his game matches up well here and on his first appearance in 2023 Young was fifth with a round to go before falling away. He added 26th last year.

Back the American each-way at 35/1 (1/5, 6 places) with BetMGM.

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Kim to Beat Spaun

For this week’s 72-hole match bet, I’ll back Si Woo Kim to beat J.J. Spaun.

Spaun was the 54-hole leader at last week’s Sony Open and looked in prime position during the final round before the birdies dried up and he settled for third.

There’s likely to be some mental let-down from that and when tallied with his very modest tournament form here of 25-MC-MC-51-MC-50 he looks one to fade.

Kim, by contrast, is a tournament specialist.

He won this event in 2021, was ninth on debut and has finishes of 11-22-25 since his victory four years ago.

The Korean missed the Sony Open cut but he shot a Friday 67 so there’s nothing to concern us there.

Kim gets the vote at -138 with bet365.

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Hadwin for Top 10

This is a tournament where past form counts for plenty and that means Adam Hadwin comes into the crosshairs.

The Canadian has pegged it up here eight times and so far has two second places, a third and two sixths, the latest last year.

Hadwin is tournament sharp after playing the two Hawaii events (29th Sentry and 59th at the Sony where he always struggles) so another challenge looks on the cards. 

The +650 at BetMGM for a top 10 makes plenty of appeal.

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How to Watch The American Express 2025

• Tournament: The American Express

• Location: La Quinta, CA 

• Date: Thursday January 16 - Sunday January 19

• How to Watch: Thursday-Sunday 4 p.m.-7 p.m. (Golf Channel). And all four days on Sky Sports