The Sony Open Predictions: It’s Henley Time Again

• The circuit returns to the popular Waialae Country Club

• It’s a very different test to last week’s Plantation Course

• But last week’s winner Hideki Matsuyama heads the betting

The Sony Open Odds

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The Sony Open Picks and Predictions

• Russell Henley each way at +2000 with Caesars Sportsbook

• David Lipsky each way at +17500 with bet365

• Luke Clanton top 20 at +210 with bet365

The Sony Open Intro

Last week Hideki Matsuyama became the seventh golfer to complete the career Hawaiian double.

But the test he conquered during his triumph in The Sentry on the Plantation Course was very different to the Waialae Country Club examination he passed when winning the Sony Open in 2022.

The Plantation Course is long, wide and undulating with huge greens.

In contrast, Waialae is short, narrow and dlat with tiny putting surfaces.

That said, seven of the last 10 winners of the Sony Open had played the previous week in the Sentry so, while the layouts are different, the post-holiday rust removal operation appears to be a benefit.

That is one reason why this tends to be a good tournament for punters. 

High quality golfers have prevailed but very often the win and the top five positions are claimed by golfers who thrive in the distinctive conditions - that is, not only adept on grainy Bermuda greens and plotting a path down narrow, doglegged fairways, but also able to deal with the tricky trade winds.

There’s all to play for but who will take the honors? Let’s find out.

Waialae CC Winners

Waialae Course Notes

• The Seth Raynor-designed layout is a par 70 that plays to 7,044 yards

• Waialae features many doglegged fairways and small greens

• The putting surfaces have grainy Bermuda grass on them

• Sea breezes are a factor and determine the scoring

• Seven of the last 10 winners had played in Kapalua the week before

Favorites to Win the Sony Open

Hideki Matsuyama (+900) at BetMGM

The Japanese golfer was sensational last week, setting a PGA Tour 72-hole record low total of 35-under-par to defeat a high quality field. Given that he now returns to another course he has won on he ought to be high on confidence. Beware, however, that his victory at Waiale in 2022 is his only top 10 finish in 11 starts on the course.

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Corey Conners (+1200) at BetMGM

The Canadian is a steady operator and his record in this event is no different. He’s played it six times, never missed a cut and recorded four top 20 including a best of third in 2019. He’s also in exceptional form. In his last three starts he has finished seventh at the Procore Championship, sixth in the Nedbank Challenge and fifth in last week’s The Sentry.

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Russell Henley (+1400) at BetMGM

Back in 2013 Henley opened his PGA Tour playing account in sensational style with victory in this event - a performance that included no less than three rounds of 63. In doing so he became the first golfer to win on debut in his rookie season in 12 years. He played last week at Plantation and while he only finished T30 that’s about par for him on that course.

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It’s Henley Time

It took a while for Henley to revive his love affair with Waialae after that win 12 years ago but in recent years he really has rediscovered the knack of going low.

In 2021 he was second at halfway before finishing T11.

A year later he led after 54 holes before Matsuyama defeated him in extra holes.

And last year he carded a final round 63 to land fourth.

Parallel to this improvement he landed his fourth PGA Tour victory in 2022 and last year he finished seventh in the US Open and fifth in the British Open.

Another PGA Tour win is in his cross hairs and a test like this is the perfect fit for him.

Back him each way with Caesars Sportsbook offering +2000 for eight places.

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Lipsky a Threat

David Lipsky closed 2024 in fine style, finishing sixth in Mexico and then ninth in Bermuda - both of them by the sea on grainy greens.

Those courses were wide open but he has top five finishes on narrow courses (for example, Crans, Milano, Laguna, Hong Kong, Valderrama, Colonial) and he also had course form because in 2023 he was fourth at Waialae.

Current form, course type form and course form - it’s all there.

He’s the value each way option at a huge +17500 with bet365 paying five places.

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Clanton Is a Potential Star 

In the last few years the likes of Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Nick Dunlap and others have emerged from college golf to win early in their professional careers (Dunlap even did so when still an amateur).

Luke Clanton could easily be the next youngster to transfer in style - and might even emulate Dunlap in winning while still outside the pro ranks but we’ll just take him to record another top 20.

Last year he landed four top 20s from just eight PGA Tour starts. All four were top 10s including two seconds and the last of them was at Sea Island which is a test much like this week.

He’s also played on short courses with Bermuda greens just twice, finishing fifth and second.

The numbers are in our favour with bet365 offering +210 for another top 20.

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How to Watch The Sony Open

• Tournament: The Sony Open

• Location: Waialae CC, Honolulu, Hawaii

• Date: Thursday, January 9 - Sunday, January 12

• How to watch: Thursday-Friday: 7-10:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), Saturday-Sunday: 4-6 p.m. (NBC/Peacock), 6-8 p.m. (Golf Channel). And all four days on ESPN+ and Sky Sports.