The Puerto Rico Open Profile
With the elite performers on the PGA Tour teeing it up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, this opposite-field event in Puerto Rico offers a huge opportunity for the veterans and tyros.
For example, in the first 14 editions of the event, old heads like Michael Bradley, Greg Kraft, and Alex Cejka rejuvenated their careers with wins while victories here also launched Tony Finau and Viktor Hovland into the big time.
Beware, though, that it’s important to recalibrate our understanding of potential and form this week.
Because in a normal PGA Tour week the players on show here would, almost without exception, be poor value given that their base level of performance would be nowhere close to their current odds.
Up against competitors of similar quality, however, we must judge them a little differently.
It makes for a subtle and enjoyable contest between the compiler and the bettor because opinions will vary about this extra dimension.
Course Report
Designed by Tom Kite, Grand Reserve Golf Club can be set at over 7,500 yards but often plays shorter.
Its main defense is the trade winds: If conditions are flat the field will tear it apart, but if it is gusting, the examination becomes very tough.
The winning score has been as low as 21-under and as high as 7-under!
Current forecasts suggest that the wind will test rather than overwhelm the field with strong breezes of between 14 and 20mph expected.
The Favorites
Although only a one-time winner on the PGA Tour (in the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic), Nate Lashley was a three-time winner on the third-tier LatinoAmerica Tour and he’s also won in the Dominican Republic on the second-tier Korn Ferry Tour.
His course form is strong, too, landing eighth in 2019 and seventh in 2022.
Add a 2023-opening seventh in Hawaii at the Sony Open and 20th last time out in the Genesis Invitational and the 40-year-old has a solid case if the short price doesn’t put you off.
Andrew Novak has recorded four top 30s this season, two in similar conditions to this week in Bermuda and Hawaii, one by the ocean at Pebble Beach, and then again last week in breezy Florida.
He played the tournament for the first time last year, sitting third with 18 holes to play before slipping back to 22nd.
His only win in the top three tiers came in Florida which is a further reason the books are wary of him this week.
With four PGA Tour triumphs, two KFT successes, and multiple mini-tour wins, veteran Scott Piercy is another player the books want to avoid holding a significant liability on.
That said, he hasn’t had a top 10 since July last summer and has a best in the 2022/23 season of 16th in the Houston Open.
He’s played the course just once, back in 2011, when he opened with a 69 but crashed out with a second-round 76.
Higgs can go Big
At his best, Harry Higgs is good enough to have finished fourth in the 2021 PGA Championship.
In itself, that hints at a quality few in the field can boast, but the fact he recorded that effort at Kiawah Island - an oceanside and blustery track - makes it even more interesting.
He’s also finished second in Jamaica on the second tier and second in Bermuda on the main tour, adding to the impression he likes this sort of Caribbean test.
He’s on a run of 5-for-7 in cuts made that include rounds of 62 at El Camaleon and 63 at Sea Island - more hints that he’s ready for this week.
Take him each way in the outright at +4000 with Unibet which pays six places.
Goya to Paint Red Numbers
Argentina’s Tano Goya is a golfer who has played just about everywhere - in Europe (both tiers), in South Africa, in Latin America, and this season he completes the first and second-tier double in the US.
He’s far from a consistent performer, but what stands out is that when he thrives, he does so in the conditions he will face this week - by the sea, with grainy greens, on resort tracks.
This season he’s 7-for-11 at making the cut, his best finishes have been in Bermuda and at PGA West, and at PGA National last week he was in contention for 36 holes.
With a weaker field, and conditions to suit, take him to land a top 30 with bet365 offering +130.
Local Knowledge for Campos
Puerto Rico’s Rafael Campos is a fascinating prospect this week.
On the one hand, he has played the course more than anyone else in the field.
On the other hand, with a few exceptions, he has struggled to transfer his best golf to this level.
Some books are wary of him, others are keen to take our money.
The win might be beyond him, but he dropped a form hint when second heading into the final round of the KFT’s Bahamas event last month, and he’s made the cut at Grand Reserve in his last five starts with three top 10s.
Some books make him +450 to land another top 10 so let’s take double (yes, double) that price with DraftKings Sportsbook offering +900.
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