Portugal Masters: Pepperell Ready to Win Again

• This is the last event of the DP World Tour’s regular season
  
• Only the top 117 on the final rankings will retain their full playing privileges
  
• Birdies and eagles are required at Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Club

Portugal Masters Odds

The odds for this tournament are provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head to Caesars Sportsbook and place a bet.

Portugal Masters Picks

Eddie Pepperell for the win at +3000 with Caesars Sportsbook

Marcus Armitage to beat John Catlin in a 72-hole match at -140 DraftKings Sportsbook

Lucas Bjerregaard to finish in the Top 20 at +280 with bet365

Portugal Masters Predictions

After the three-week Spanish swing, the DP World Tour hops over the border to Portugal.

Vilamoura, set in the Algarve, is a popular tourist destination for golfers and that tells you what sort of course to expect this week.

Yes, Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course is a resort track by the coast and it’s a question of keeping the birdie count ticking over and maybe throwing in the odd eagle.

 Scores of 20-under or lower were required to lift the trophy from 2015-2018 and last year Thomas Pieters fired 19-under to win by two.

Winds are the only real protection but there’s nothing extreme in the forecast this week and only on Saturday is it predicted to get a little gusty.

But far from being four gentle loops by the sea, there is serious jeopardy for plenty of this week’s field.

Once again, the importance of the Portugal Masters is elevated by it being the final counting event of the DP World Tour’s regular season.

At the close of play on Sunday, only the top 117 in the rankings will secure their playing privileges for next season so this is the last chance saloon for those currently outside that mark.

Punters have a bunch of course forms to lean on as all 16 editions of this tournament have been held at the Dom Pedro Victoria GC.

The Arnold Palmer par 71 (three par 5s) which measures just shy of 7,200 yards has generous fairways and is built on a mostly flat, exposed piece of land.

Like many resort courses, bunkers are common while water comes into play on six holes.

Length off the tee is usually an advantage and hitting the greens on a regular basis is important. Scrambling stats of past winners are strong but perhaps the key skill is putting.

That was highlighted again last year when the top four were all ranked in the top 10 for Putting Average.  

Of the 15 winners at this venue, nine were either English or Irish so that could be another clue.

Pepperell Ready to Win Again

 One of the stories on the DP World Tour over the last few months has been Eddie Pepperell’s return to form.

The former World No. 32 had dropped outside the top 500 but started to turn the corner with a tied 11th in July’s Cazoo Classic followed by a second place a week later at the Hero Open.

Pepperell has continued his impressive run to the extent that he’s not finished outside the top 32 in his last 10 starts.

That consistency deserves praise but what he really wants now is a return to the winner’s circle.

And if there’s a likely venue for that to happen, it has to be this one.

Pepperell is a real course horse at Dom Pedro and from 2017 to 2019 he posted finishes of third, second, and sixth.

With his iron play still in excellent shape (1st for Strokes Gained: Approach last week), the Englishman should set himself up with numerous birdie chances here.

If he can hole his share, Pepperell could be hard to beat. 

The +3000 with Caesars Sportsbook looks very playable given those credentials and Pepperell would be a hugely popular winner with the many British tourists currently soaking up some winter sun on the Algarve.

Armitage to Outscore Catlin

Pepperell helped us land another 72-hole match bet last week as a +100 ‘dog against Nacho Elvira.

This week, I’m backing another Englishman, Marcus Armitage, to sink American John Catlin.

I want a hot putter shooting low scores onside and Armitage very much fits the bill.

He ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained: Putting when finishing sixth in last week’s Mallorca Open and in that event, he twice twirled rounds of 63.

Catlin ended a run of four straight missed cuts with tied 11th at Valderrama last time but that was high scoring and he’s not broken 68 in his last five events.

True, Catlin does have an eighth here from his three starts compared to Armitage’s best of 20th from the same number of visits but the Englishman is playing the better golf at present.

Take Armitage at -140 with DraftKings Sportsbook to win over 72 holes.

Back Bjerregaard for a Top 20 

Lucas Bjerregaard sits down at 146th on the Race to Dubai so needs a big week to retain his playing privileges.

But if he were to pick a venue to save his skin, this would probably be it.

The Dane won here in 2017 after finishes of ninth in 2015 and 12th in 2016.

And last year, when again needing to save his card, he finished runner-up.

Overall, he has five top 20s at this course in his last seven visits and a tied 23rd in the Open de Espana earlier this month suggests he can add to that brilliant Dom Pedro record.  

Back Bjerregaard to rack up another top 20 here at +280 with bet365.

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