Houston Open 2025 Golf Predictions: Jason Can Win the Day

• Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy headline the field

• Stephan Jaeger returns to defend the title

• This is the first of two weeks in Texas before The Masters

Houston Open 2025 Odds

Odds from bet365 Sportsbook. Sign up for a bet365 account with our promo code WSN365 and claim your bonus: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose

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Houston Open 2025 Predictions

• Jason Day each-way (1/5, 6 places) at +4000 with BetMGM

• Thomas Detry to beat Maverick McNealy over 72 holes at +100 with bet365

• Victor Perez for Top 20 at +375 with bet365

Houston Open 2025 Intro

On first glance, it’s a slight surprise to see the top two players in the world - Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy - contesting the fairly low-key Houston Open.

And yet with the Masters just a couple of weeks away, it makes sense.

Scheffler has a third Green Jacket to play for while McIlroy continues his quest for a first.

Beyond the proximity on the calendar, there is another reason why these two want to peg it up here: the course.

Memorial Park is a municipal golf course reworked by Tom Doak in 2019 but there are some obvious similarities to Augusta National.

Par isn’t one of them as this is a 70 but its yardage of 7,475 yards is almost identical.

But it’s the style of course that really brings Augusta to mind.

Memorial Park has wide open fairways and shaved run-off areas around the greens, putting an emphasis on chipping off tight lies.  

This is just the fifth edition to be held at Memorial Park in the modern era and the previous four winners are listed below. 

All shot between -10 and -16 and two were non-Americans.

One other crucial point: the 2020, 2021 and 2022 editions were held in November. The tournament moved to March last year when conditions really suited bombers, as they likely will this time.

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Last 5 Winners of the Houston Open

Course Notes

• Memorial Park is a par 70 that has five par 3s

• The overseeded Bermuda grass greens are set to run at 12 on the Stimp

• The weather forecast suggests rain on the first two days

• The last four winners have ranked in the top 5 for Strokes Gained: Putting 

• Tony Finau (2022) holds the 72-hole record of 264

• Scottie Scheffler and Finau (twice) have the 18-hole course record of 62

Favorites to Win the Houston Open 2025

Scottie Scheffler (+375) at bet365

Scheffler has teed it up five times in 2025 and is yet to hoist the silverware. After his phenomenal 2024, that’s a shock although he’s yet to finish worse than 25th so it’s hardly a crisis. A third at The Genesis Invitational is his peak so far but course form of 2-9-2-32 here at Memorial Park suggests this could be the week he gets back to winning ways.    

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Rory McIlroy (+650) at bet365

McIlroy said earlier in the year he wanted to cut out the mistakes and be more like Scheffler and it’s working for him. While Scottie searches for a win, Rory has two of them after victories at two iconic venues: Pebble Beach and Sawgrass. This is his first start at Memorial Park but he’s posted third places on his last two starts in Texas (2024 Texas Open and 2023 World Match Play).   

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Aaron Rai (+2500) at bet365

The Englishman is turning himself into one of the most consistent performers around. He’s cashed in six of his seven events this season and the last three show fourth at the Mexico Open, 11th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 14th at The Players Championship. What’s more, he loves Memorial Park too, having finished seventh (twice) and 19th in three appearances. 

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Dial in to Day   

It’s easy to justify a bet on either Scheffler or McIlroy but I’ll look further down the board for my main bet.

And the one I like at a chunky +4000 is Jason Day.

The Aussie has a great record down the years in Texas, where he was a former resident, and has claimed three of his 13 PGA TOUR Titles in the Lone Star State.

That includes his most recent win, the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson.

This year, he’s flashing plenty of strong form.

Day was third at The American Express and 13th at Pebble Beach on the West Coast.

And on his most recent start, the former World No.1 posted eighth at Bay Hill, showing a real uptick with the putter.

Day has always thrived when short-game is to the fore and he’s one of the very best when chipping off tight greenside lies after balls have been repelled down slopes from shaved run-off areas.   

He’s shown that here with finishes of seventh and 16th in two of his four starts at Memorial Park.

Now reunited with his long-term coach and mentor Colin Swatton, Day looks a value each-way pick at +4000 (1/5, 6 places) with BetMGM. 

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Detry to Beat McNealy

Thomas Detry to beat Maverick McNealy is this week’s 72-hole match bet recommendation.

Detry is the ‘dog here and that makes the Belgian great value.

Last month he produced an incredible display to win the WM Phoenix Open by seven shots.

There was an inevitable dip after that but last week’s top 25 at the Valspar suggests Detry is ready to go again.

And Memorial Park looks a great venue for him to shine once more as he finished joint runner-up here 12 months ago.

McNealy has good course form with finishes of 20-19-27 but he’s gone off the boil in recent weeks, missing the cut at both Bay Hill and Sawgrass, shooting Friday scores of 80 and 81 in those two Florida events.

Take Detry at +100 with bet365.   

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Perez for Top 10

Frenchman Victor Perez went to college in neighboring New Mexico and seems to enjoy his starts in Texas.

He made the last four of the WGC Match Play in Austin in 2021 and was 17th on his debut here last year. 

After finishes of 18th (Cognizant) and 22nd (Valspar) in his last two starts, Perez is well worth a punt for a Top 20 finish at +375 with bet365.   

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How to Watch the Houston Open 2025

• Tournament: Houston Open

• Location: Memorial Park, Houston, TX

• Date: Thursday March 27 - Sunday March 30

• How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 4 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), Saturday-Sunday 1 p.m.-3 p.m (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC/Peacock) And all four days on Sky Sports