FedEx St. Jude Championship Predictions: Conners Value to Beat the Favorites

• New Olympic champion Scottie Scheffler is the favorite

• Lucas Glover defends the title

• The popular TPC Southwind is the host venue

The FedEx St Jude Championship Odds

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The FedEx St Jude Championship Picks and Predictions

• Corey Conners each way at (+3300) via BetMGM

• Hideki Matsuyama to beat Viktor Hovland at (+125) via bet365

• Billy Horschel top 20 at (+225) via bet365

FedEx St. Jude Championship Intro

TPC Southwind has been a long-time host of PGA Tour events. But two years ago the tournament was upgraded to the first of three FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Well, not quite. In reality, the old St Jude Classic was dropped and Playoff was given a new title.

It’s confusing stuff but, in essence, what matters for punters is that TPC Southwind is a golf course with a distinct fingerprint so we’re not guessing about what is required.

It’s a tricky test, with many doglegs and water in play.

There is also Zoysia grass on the fairways which suits sweepers of iron shots rather than those players who attack the ball from a sharp angle.

It also favors golfers with proven course experience (ideally a top 20) and hot form (especially with their tee-to-green game with an emphasis on approach shots).

Who will take the honors this week? Let’s find out.

TPC Southwind Winners

TPC Southwind Course Notes

• It is a par 70 that plays to 7,244 yards

• The layout was designed by Ron Prichard

• It features Zoysia grass on the fairways

• Accuracy is key: there are nine dog legs and water in play in 10 holes

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green has been a key stat

Favorites to Win FedEx St. Jude Championship

Scottie Scheffler (+333) at BetMGM

The good news? It’s not a secret but Scottie Scheffler is in sensational form. In fact, he has seven wins in his last 12 starts and has only once finished outside the top eight in that run. There is some bad news this week, however, and it’s his course record which is simply poor. He’s made six starts, has only twice finished in the top 20, and has a best of only 14th.

Xander Schauffele (+700) at BetMGM

Schauffele and Scheffler sound alike and, this week at least, their records are very similar. The former is also in great form, recording eight top 15 finishes in a row including two victories in major championships. The second element of deja vu is his Southwind record. He’s also played it six times and has only one top 20 finish (sixth in 2020).

Rory McIlroy (+900) at BetMGM

Rory McIlroy has a better course record than either Scheffler or Schauffele. He has four top 20s from seven starts and three of them are top 10s with a best of third last year. His form, on the other hand, is not what it could be. He claimed two wins at the start of summer but since then has endured US Open agony, a missed cut in the British Open and a flat Olympic competition.

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Conners the Value

Let’s take on the favorites with their poor course form or questionable recent record.

TPC Southwind is a golf course that tests the long game and also the ability to score on par-4s.

Canada’s Corey Conners ranks 27th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee this season, fourth for SG Approach, and seventh for SG Tee to Green.

Even old-fashioned stats back up his quality: 15th for Total Driving and 11th for Greens in Regulation.

He also ranks 23rd for Par-4 Scoring Average and 22nd for Par-4 Birdies.

He’s not just a good fit on paper, he also carded weekend 65s to finish sixth last year.

He hasn’t missed a cut in over a year, he’s logged 10 top 30 finishes in a row and four of his last seven starts reaped top 10s.

Back him each way with BetMGM offering (+3300).

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Matsuyama to Maintain Advantage

It’s not been a great year for Norway’s Viktor Hovland and he’s lost the head-to-head count against Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama 5-8 - and he’s 3-8 down in the last 11.

At TPC Southwind the count is 2-1 in favor of Matsuyama and the one defeat he experienced came courtesy of an unusually good week for Hovland on the course (and even then there was only one shot in it).

Matsuyama has three top 20s in four starts on the course, while Hovland has just two in four. 

Back the Japanese golfer to maintain his advantage at (-125) with bet365.

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Horschel Can Ride the Wave

Billy Horschel had his difficulties early on in his career at TPC Southwind.

He missed the cut in 2009 and 2011, and was 72nd in 2012.

But he persevered and the returns have improved in style.

His last nine visits have reaped six top 20 finishes, five of them top 10s.

He’s also in form.

13 of his last 25 starts have reaped top 20s, as have five of his last 10.

Two starts ago he was second in the British Open and last week he was seventh in the Wyndham Championship.

Another top 20 is an attractive (+225) with bet365.

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How to Watch The FedEx St. Jude Championship

• Tournament: The FedEx St. Jude Championship

• Location: TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee

• Date: Thursday, August 15 - Sunday, August 18

• How to Watch: Thursday & Friday 2-6 p.m. (Golf Channel). Saturday 1-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3-6 p.m. (NBC). Sunday 12-2 p.m. (Golf Channel), 2-6 p.m. (NBC). And all four days on ESPN+ and Sky Sports.