Farmers Insurance Open Predictions: Finau Can Flourish

• Three rounds are played at the South Course and one at the North

• The tournament is being played from Wednesday to Saturday

• Sweden’s Ludvig Aberg is the betting favorite

Farmers Insurance Open 2025 Odds

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Farmers Insurance Open 2025 Predictions

• Tony Finau each-way (1/4, 5 places) at +2500 with bet365

• Jason Day to bt Hideki Matsuyama over 72 holes at +150 with Caesars Sportsbook

• Beau Hossler for Top 10 at +500 with bet365

Farmers Insurance Open 2025 Intro

Are we going to see an American winner on the PGA TOUR anytime soon?

The wait goes on after Austria’s Sepp Straka won last week’s American Express at La Quinta.

That followed Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama capturing The Sentry and Canadian Nick Taylor the Sony Open.

However, this week’s Farmers Insurance Open at scenic Torrey Pines in California may not be the best place for that streak to be halted.

Last year, Frenchman Matthieu Pavon scored a shock win, coming home ahead of Denmark’s Nicolai Hojgaard.

In doing so the Frenchman became the fifth overseas winner in the last eight editions and let’s also recall that Spain’s Jon Rahm won the US Open when it was held at Torrey Pines in 2021.

The South Course, as usual, stages 54 of the 72 holes, including both weekend rounds.

It’s a beast at over 7,700 yards long and played nearly three strokes harder than the much shorter north 12 months ago.

But many golf fans prefer to watch the grind.

Two of the three events so far have been won with 35-under (The Sentry) and 25-under (American Express). That’s a contrast to this tournament where the average winning score over the last decade is a hair below 13-under.

The tournament runs from Wednesday to Saturday so get those bets down early.          

The Last 5 Winners of the Farmers Insurance Open

Course Notes

• The South Course is a par 72 that measures 7,765 yards

• The North Course is a par 72 that measures 7,258 yards

• The South played nearly three shots harder last year

• George Burns (1987) and Tiger Woods (1999) hole the 72-hole record of 266

• Temps are in the 60s although could stay in the 50s for Saturday’s windy/rainy closer

Favorites to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

Ludvig Aberg (+900) at bet365

The Swede has looked strong since coming back from knee surgery and fired 65-64 on the weekend to open his 2025 account with fifth place at The Sentry in Hawaii, ranking in the top 20 for all five Strokes Gained categories. Aberg made his Torrey Pines debut last year and posted ninth. He followed that with second at Pebble Beach and 19th at Riviera so his early performances on the West Coast have been excellent.

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Hideki Matsuyama (+1200) at bet365

A two-time winner in 2024, Matsuyama made the perfect start to 2025 by shooting a ridiculous 35-under to win The Sentry at Kapalua. He added 16th at the Sony Open so played his eight rounds on the Hawaii Swing in a combined 46-under. He’s done well here too. The Japanese golfer was third in 2019, ninth in 2023, 12th in 2018 and 13th last year.

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Sungjae Im (+1800) at bet365

Im made a surprising early exit from the American Express last week after shooting himself in the foot with an opening 77. The rounds of 65-68 that followed were more indicative of his recent play which saw him start the season with third place at The Sentry. The Korean crashed out at halfway in this event last year but was fourth in 2023 and sixth in 2022.

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Put Faith in Finau 

One of the biggest course horses here at Torrey Pines is Tony Finau. 

Tallying it up, the man from Utah has a second, a fourth, three sixth places - the latest last year - and a ninth. 

He’s been outside the top 25 in the Farmers just once in 10 appearances, a remarkable level of consistency on such a tough venue as the South Course.

After 15th in The Sentry at the start of the year, Finau missed the American Express cut last week after a poor round three but expect him to be in the mix again here.

Speaking 12 months ago, Finau said: “This is a place I enjoy coming to. The whole vibe of it. I mean, you’ve got the beach in the background. I try to look at the beach as often as I can.

“I think the golf course is one that favors guys that hit it with some length, hit it with some height. So I play it well.”

Back the American each-way at 25/1 (1/4, 5 places) with bet365.     

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Day to Beat Matsuyama

For this week’s 72-hole match bet, I’ll take a punt on the ‘dog and back Jason Day to beat Hideki Matsuyama.

Matsuyama made all the headlines in week one of the new season when shooting 35-under to win The Sentry.

He followed it with 16th at the Sony Open but was a little wayward off the tee. 

Matsuayama has a good record in this event too but this is where we start to build the case for Day.

The Aussie is a two-time winner of the Farmers and has outscored Matsuyama here in two of the last three editions as well as having a 6-5 record overall.

Day warmed up with an impressive third place at last week’s American Express so gets the vote at +150 with Caesars Sportsbook.

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Hossler for Top 10

Beau Hossler has been in fine form for some time now and a 12th place at The American Express on Sunday secured a sixth top 25 in his last eight starts.

Adding to his appeal here are two top 10s in the last five years: ninth place in 2020 and sixth in 2024. Both times he closed with 68 on the South.

A strong performer in California (five top 15s in his last 11 appearances including a pair of top sixes), Hossler can make his mark again. 

The +500 at bet365 for a top 10 makes plenty of appeal.

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How to Watch the Farmers Insurance Open 2025

• Tournament: Farmers Insurance Open

• Location: San Diego, CA 

• Date: Wednesday, January 22 - Saturday, January 25

• How to Watch: Wednesday-Thursday 3 p.m.-7 p.m. (Golf Channel), Friday 3 p.m.-5 p.m. (Golf Channel), 5 p.m.-8 p.m. (CBS), Saturday 2 p.m.-4 p.m. (Golf Channel), 4 p.m.-8 p.m. (CBS) And all four days on Sky Sports