Canary Islands Championship Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds

• The European Tour remains in Tenerife for a new event on the schedule
• Golf Costa Adeje hosts for the second week running
• Dean Burmester seeks back-to-back wins after landing the Tenerife Open

Canary Islands Championship Odds

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Canary Islands Championship Predictions and Picks

Adri Arnaus looks close to a first win and after last week’s tied eighth on the same course, it could come this time. Take the Spanish local each way at +2500 with bet365.

Nino Bertasio was impressive in both Kenya events when the same venue was used back-to-back so is a value bet for a top 10 at +550 with bet365 after last week’s T22.

Masahiro Kawamura has impressive form in week two of the recent dual tournaments and can beat inconsistent Eddie Pepperell over 72 holes at -110 with bet365.

Picks:

Adri Arnaus each-way (1/4 1-2-3-4-5) at +2500 with bet365

Nino Bertasio to finish in the Top 10 at +550 with bet365

Masahiro Kawamura to beat Eddie Pepperell in a 72-hole match at -110 with bet365

Canary Islands Championship

Canary Islands Championship Profile

It’s deja vu all over again.

Yep, for the fourth time this season on the European Tour, we have an event played on the same course as the previous week’s.

In theory, that should make week two easier to predict than week one although it hasn’t quite worked out that way.

Crunching the numbers at those earlier back-to-back events – Celtic Classic/Wales Open, Cyprus Open/Cyprus Showdown and Kenya Savannah Classic/Kenya Open – shows that seven players made the top 15 in both Welsh events, five did in Cyprus and six in Kenya.

However, the pattern showed that in 12 of those 18 cases, the better performance came in the second event. That obviously makes sense; players were used to the course and performed better after that first look.

Barring the odd exception, the field is very similar to the Tenerife Open. Indeed 10 of the top 11 finishers tee it up again. That includes winner Dean Burmester, who torched Golf Costa Adeje for a closing 62 on the way to a total of 25-under – five shots clear of the rest.

With Garrick Higgo winning the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open, South African golfers have won the first two legs of this three-week Canary Islands Swing. A reminder that the picturesque Golf Costa Adeje is a short (6,857-yard) and easy resort course featuring Paspalum fairways and Bermuda greens. Unusually, it has five par 5s and six par 3s.

Scott Jamieson fired a 61 in round two last Friday so get ready for another birdie-fest in which a hot putter is a must.

Arnaus Can Get First Win

Adri Arnaus has long been considered one of the bright prospects of Spanish golf, but so far a victory has eluded him.

That could change this week.

Taking a closer look at those back-to-back events on the same course, Robert MacIntyre won the Cyprus Showdown after finishing third in the previous week’s Cyprus Open while Sami Valimaki finished runner-up in the Wales Open after tied sixth at the Celtic Classic seven days earlier.

In the Kenya Savannah Classic, Calum Hill and Sam Horsfield both finished tied third after posting T8 in the initial Kenya event. So, after his tied eighth last week, I’m hoping Arnaus can follow that same trajectory and get a higher finish – and hopefully the win – this time.

On his first look at the course, he opened with 65 and closed with a pair of 66s so it was just that Friday 71 which knocked him off course. He was 7th for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and 7th for SG: Approach last time so all it will take is a few more putts to drop.

The 26-year-old has an impressive record on home Spanish soil with his last four starts there showing 2-4-62-8.

Time him each way (five places) at +2500 with bet365.

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Bertasio Can Crack the Top 10

It’s a decent strategy to look at players who have shown they can put in two good performances on the same course. Nino Bertasio fits the bill as he followed up tied 12th in the Kenya Open with tied 10th a week later in the Kenya Savannah Classic.

So, after T22 at this venue last week, it’s a reasonable expectation for the Italian to climb into the top 20 and maybe top 10 this week.

Bertasio has shown he can go low with two 63s in his last 11 rounds, the former on day four of the Kenya Savannah Classic and the latter in round two at the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open. He was ranked in the top seven for SG: Approach in those two events while last week he gained over 5.642 strokes with the putter.

With four top 25s in his last six events, the 32-year-old is playing nicely and is worth a bet at +550 with bet365 to crack the top 10.

Kawamura Can Outscore Pepperell

Masahiro Kawamura v Eddie Pepperell is an interesting 72-hole match and bet365 makes it a -110 pick ‘em.

On pedigree, most would lean towards the Englishman and also point to last week’s tied 33rd which he rounded off with a 65. But coming into that event, Pepperell’s form was MC-64-MC-MC so perhaps it’s too early to presume it’s a sure sign of a turnaround.

His own take on Twitter: “Didn’t hit any balls before my round today. Best I’ve hit it in ages (not hard).” It all still sounds a bit hit and miss with Pepperell whereas Kawamura is on a decent run and beat his rival in Tenerife after posting tied 28th.

I also like the fact that he’s shown improvement in these double-up weeks. The Japanese went from tied 24th to runner-up in the two Cyprus events and from missed cut to tied 24th in the Kenya tournaments.

It suggests he’s a good learner so he’ll hopefully kick on from last week’s T28 and beat Pepperell again.