BMW Championship 2024 Predictions: Billy the Bet

• This is the second leg of the PGA TOUR’s FedExCup Playoffs

• Castle Pines stages the event for the first time

• Scottie Scheffler ranks No.1 in the FedExCup standings

BMW Championship 2024 Odds

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BMW Championship 2024 Predictions

• Billy Horschel each-way (1/4, 1-2-3-4-5) at +3500 with bet365

• Tony Finau to beat Viktor Hovland over 72 holes at +110 with bet365

• Will Zalatoris for Top 10 at +450 with BetMGM

BMW Championship 2024 Intro

One down, two to go.

Hideki Matsuyama won the first of the three FedExCup Playoff events after surviving a late wobble at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week.

That victory lifted the Japanese golfer to clear third in the Points List although he’s still some way behind the top two as the season comes to its climax, first here and then the traditional season-ender at the TOUR Championship.

Scottie Scheffler (6,533pts) leads the way from Xander Schauffele (5,037), with Matsuyama (3,899), Collin Morikawa (2,596) and Rory McIlroy (2,559) rounding out the top five.

The winner this week receives 2,000 points.

Just the top 50 in the standings roll on to Colorado as they go into battle at Castle Pines Golf Club.

The course, just outside Denver, measures a mighty 8,130 yards but the high altitude means it’ll play much shorter than that.

It’s a Jack Nicklaus design being used for the first time in this event although it previously staged The International, a PGA TOUR tournament that ran from 1986 to 2006.

The venue which features dramatic elevation changes has undergone a serious renovation since those days.

It has fast, bentgrass greens and when added to the serious undulations, there are some comparisons with Augusta National.

Form from other Nicklaus designs such as Muirfield Village, home of the Memorial Tournament, could also be useful.

Temperatures are forecast to be in the high 80s but there’s a chance of rain and wind over the first two days.      

Last 5 Winners of the BMW Championship 2024

Course Notes

• The Jack Nicklaus-designed Castle Pines is the longest course in PGA TOUR history

• It’s a par 72 and measures 8,130 yards from the tips

• The course features 400 feet of elevation change

• Set at an average altitude of 6,200 feet, it will play much shorter than its yardage

• It last staged a PGA TOUR event - The International - 18 years ago

Favorites to win the BMW Championship 2024

Scottie Scheffler (+350) at bet365

So good is Scheffler, we’re now into a weird zone whereby last week’s fourth place at the FedEx St. Jude somehow feels disappointing. After six wins in an extraordinary season, perhaps it’s understandable to see it that way. He’s the deserved short-priced favorite again so the only real nitpick is that the funky yardages skewed by altitude could just throw him off.

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Xander Schauffele (+600) at bet365

The No.2 in the FedExCup race is having a remarkable season of his own. Two Major wins - PGA Championship and Open Championship - are the clear highlights but the rest of his campaign is littered with top 10s. The latest came in Tennessee last week, Schauffele closing with 63 to finish tied second at St. Jude.

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Rory McIlroy (+1400) at bet365

While Scheffler and Schauffele look almost certain to contend, it’s more of a guessing game with Rory. After bouncing back from his missed cut at Royal Troon with fifth in the Olympics, he nosedived again with 68th out of 70 at St. Jude last week, recording his worst SG: Off The Tee numbers of the season and putting poorly. Is his focus still there? Is his head right? If it is, this course should suit.

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Horschel Can Stay Hot

Billy Horschel’s finest hour came in the FedExCup when he won two of the Playoff events to be crowned champion in 2014.

The first of those came in this very event when it was staged at Cherry Hills.

And those with local knowledge or good memories will know that that course is located only around a dozen miles from this one.

Horschel handled the altitude expertly, revealing that he’d played plenty of golf high in the mountains in Aspen, so that gives him a leg up in a department, correct club selection, that will be a key to success this week.

Ten years is a long time of course but it’s fair to say Horschel is playing his best golf since that glorious peak of 2014.

He arrives back in Colorado having finally made his mark in the Majors.

Amazingly, Horschel had just one top 10 at the top level prior to this year but in 2024 he posted tied eighth at the PGA Championship and followed it with his best-ever Major finish: tied second in the Open Championship.

He’s built on that in two starts since, finishing seventh at the Wyndham Championship and 10th at St. Jude last week.  

There’s lots to like about Billy Ho this week so take him each-way at +3500 with bet365. 

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Finau to Beat Hovland

Tony Finau is the go-to man when playing the ‘altitude angle’ this week and I’ll take him as the +110 ‘dog to beat Viktor Hovland in a 72-hole match at bet365.

The 34-year-old was born and bred in Utah so is used to playing golf at 6,000 yards plus above sea level.

He’s a strong performer on courses with shared attributes to this one such as Augusta National, Nicklaus’ Muirfield Village and the very undulating Plantation Course in Hawaii, and arrives in strong form.

Finau has a seven-event streak of top 20s on home U.S. soil and his high-level consistency makes him ideal for match bets.  

Hovland bounced back to form with tied second in the St. Jude last week after 30th at the Olympics and MC in the Open Championship but Finau has the more solid credentials.

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Zalatoris for Top 10

Will Zalatoris found his stride again with 12th at St. Jude last week.

A previous winner of the nearby Colorado Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour, he can show further progress here with a top 10 at +450 with BetMGM.

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How to Watch the BMW Championship 2024

• Tournament: BMW Championship 2024

• Location: Castle Pines Golf Club, Castle Rock, CO 

• Date: Thursday, August 22 - Sunday, August 25

• How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 3 p.m.-7 p.m. (Golf Channel), Saturday 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC), Sunday 12 p.m.-2 p.m. (Golf Channel), 2 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC) And all four days on Sky Sports