LEC 2022 Spring Split Picks, Predictions, Odds March 4

• The LEC rolls on this Friday with another packed schedule of games
• Mad Lions desperate to end their recent downward spiral
• G2, Rogue aiming to improve as spring split moves towards business end

Pick: Rogue (moneyline)

SK Gaming vs Rogue Predictions

We are drawing to the end of what has been an exciting LEC Spring Split with one weekend remaining in the regular season. The race for the final few playoff berths is well and truly on. Just when it appeared as if SK Gaming were beginning to make a late surge up into the top six, they’ve been scuppered again. Two back-to-back losses last week haven’t done them any favors. They are currently sitting joint seventh with 5 wins and 10 losses, needing a miracle of sorts to qualify.

Their opponents, Rogue, are perched at the top with a one-win lead over their nearest rivals Fnatic. With a 12-3 record, a playoff berth has been sealed almost, but they’d want to now finish off the spring split as the outright winners. Given how consistent they’ve been, they are the overwhelming favorites for this match. It will take an incredibly special effort from SK to run them close.

Treatz Thrives In Old Role

SK have benefited from Treatz moving back to a support position. The Swedish international has delivered better returns this year than previously when he was a jungler. The swap back to his main role has once again underlined his importance in the set up. Now, for him to work his magic to keep SK alive. Overall, he lands 0.53 kills, 3.07 deaths and 6.73 assists, the most important parameter to judge his performances by.

Rogue – Clear Leaders

Rogue are still at the top, but Fnatic are closing down the gap. A two-win lead from last week is now down to one, but that isn’t something they will be fretting about. Key markings, clear plans and role clarity has helped them thrive. There isn’t much reason to change anything around as they clash against a team that will have to do all the running.

As always, Comp and Larssen will be key to their offensive proficiency, while Malrang holds the aces in the support role. He has the ability to neutralise the threat Treatz brings to the table. In fact, his assist rate of 7.53 trumps Treatz, although in a real match situation, sometimes stats can completely be taken out of the window.

Misfits vs Astralis Pick

Pick: Misfits (moneyline)

Misfits vs Astralis Predictions

Irrespective of how their season goes from here, the 2022 Spring Split will be remembered for Astralis’ epic display in their takedown of Rogue, who were expected to go undefeated. The result was all the more shocking given Misfits didn’t look like notching up a win.

By doing so, Astralis ended both their nine-game losing streak and Rogue’s nine-game winning streak. Within 10 minutes of the contest starting, Astralis took a lead and held on to it until the very end. Rogue made multiple attempts to break into the contest but to no avail. Since then, Astralis have gone on to notch up two more wins.

These are some kind of consolation for them in what has otherwise been a forgettable season. They’re scraping the bottom of the points table still and that’s unlikely to change with this result, but at least they know they can challenge, and if luck goes their way, beat the top teams. That is motivation enough to keep the fire burning.

Misfits are comfortably placed third, with a 10-5 record. If they win their remaining three matches, they have an outside chance of finishing first.

Of course, they can’t entirely control that aspect, since it will involve teams above them having to lose. Upsets have been seen before and there’s no reason why it can’t happen again, but Misfits are better off being realistic and control their fate.

They are coming off a loss in their previous game and will want to iron out a few flaws from there to bring out the perfect game against a side they will be favored to beat 99 times out of 100. No wonder then that the odds are with them for this one and rightly so.

Vetheo Stands Out For Misfits

In their previous game, Misfits were handed a comprehensive defeat by Vitality. They surged to an early lead, but lost the game in the middle. They eventually finished with nearly 9k gold less than Vitality. The conceding of advantage also led to a freefall. They managed to land just five kills to Vitality’s 19, nine towers less than their opponents, apart from being completely blanked in terms of inhibitors and barons.

Vetheo’s performance was some sort of a saving grace. He landed 4 kills, 2 deaths and 1 assist to end with a creep score of 402. Quietly, he has emerged as a top three mid laner this split on the back of a series of strong performances. He leads all mid laners in KDA with a kill participation percentage of 77, and ranks second in damage per minute (542). These are intimidating numbers for an opponent. Astralis will have their task cut out.

Vitality vs Mad Lions Pick

Pick: Mad Lions (moneyline)

Vitality vs MAD Lions Predictions

The gap between the two teams is massive, even if on the table they may just be separated by one position. Vitality are joint fifth with an 8-7 record presently.

MAD Lions are on a downward spiral, having lost six in a row now to have conceded so much ground that they’re no longer the team they promised to be at the start of the spring split. Even three weeks ago, this slump would’ve been unimaginable.

But that’s the reality today. Can they turn it around? As such, even a miracle may not be enough.

A team full of superstars in every role, one that has in the past run roughshod over opponents are now trying to jostle their way into the playoffs. It was so different for Vitality.

Watching them in the first half of the Spring Split gave you a vibe of them lacking something in their play.

It’s for them to prove this isn’t the case. They can yet control their fate, they can yet win every game from here on to seal a playoff berth. But there are a few areas to work on.

Alphari Rises Above Vitality’s Sluggishness

Last week, they banished a few weak links by brushing aside SK Gaming and Misfits thanks to a terrific effort from star top laner Alphari, who ravaged through the maps. He recorded just one death, nine kills and seven assists.

That is as impressive as it gets. Known to be among the best in the mid lane, he has the best LEC average gold difference at 15 minutes.

From great team fighting to good macro, Alphari and the rest of Vitality will hope they can remain consistent and replicate similar performances from start to finish. If they can do that, the possibilities are endless.

Hopes Dashed, Pride To Play For

MAD Lions can kiss goodbye to their hopes. The reigning LEC Champions have lost 10 games already and things went downhill right from the start against Fnatic.

What began as a battle for map control went pear-shaped at the halfway mark after the teams took a passive stance early. After 10 minutes, MAD Lions got first blood onto Fnatic top laner Wunder and grabbed the Rift Herald. At the 20-minute mark, however, the game was nearly even: MAD Lions held a slight 500 gold lead.

Two minutes later, they found two crucial kill. Fnatic, however, quickly overturned the situation by capitalizing on the opponent’s sluggishness leading to three MAD Lions players killed. This is where the game turned and there was no looking back from there on. They will want to ensure they don’t let the advantage slip this dramatically going forward.

G2 vs Excel Pick

Pick: G2 (moneyline)

G2 vs Excel Predictions

G2 have been steady all season without being spectacular. They’ve shown all the virtues of a good team – good kill percentage, map control and the ability to seize the initiative in difficult times. That’s the good bit. The bad part is when they have had bad days, things have gone horribly wrong. It is about trying to minimize the mad days going forward. They currently have a 9-6 record and are placed fourth.

G2 made up for the loss to Misfits by beating Team BDS and scuppering their chances of a playoff spot in their debut season. G2 are one step closer to securing their playoffs spot, hoping to join Rogue, Fnatic, and Misfits, who are currently the only teams that have qualified. All said, G2 are a spot above Excel, who are fifth with an 8-7 record. So in terms of where they’re placed, G2 has a slight edge but make no mistake, this is a clash of equals.

The Mikyx Impact

Excel is chasing its first LEC playoff appearance in their history, and a win this week could be a massive step towards that goal. Excel’s newly acquired support Mikyx has played a key role in the team’s mid-season transformation after being signed midway.

Since Mikyx joined, Excel has won six out of 10 games. His proficiency has been a key reason why they have a chance to move from being bridesmaid to dark horses. Mikyx brings with him experience, multiple trophies from his time with G2, and of course the winning mentality that has served the team well.

The Key For G2

G2 will look towards BrokenBlade and Flakked for offensive proficiency. BrokenBlade lands 3.6 kills, 2.6 deaths and 5.07 assists, along with a KDA of 3.33 and creep score of 283.53. Flakked goes at 4 kills, 1.87 death and 5 assists, along with a KDA of 4.82 and creep score of 304.07. Meanwhile, Targamas will be a key support player. His assist rate of 8.67 is among the best in the league. The Belgian international was among the first players born in the 2000s to feature in the EU LCS.

BDS vs Fnatic Pick

Pick: Fnatic (moneyline)

BDS vs Fnatic Predictions

And finally, BDS will be playing for pride and a chance to do what Astralis did to Fnatic, but on current form you wouldn’t bet against that possibility.

BDS are languishing ninth with a 4-11 record, even as Fnatic have a 11-4 record to be placed second. They will also enter the bout on the back of three successive victories.

BDS were dealt a body blow against G2, something they will have to recover from very quickly. The game against G2 saw BrokenBlade make his presence felt on the rift as soon as he stepped into the lane.

He helped destroy both top lane towers less than 20 minutes into the game, forcing BDS to come up with a counter. Team BDS will seek to bounce back during the Summer Split. What they can do against Fnatic though is play party poopers. They can also take heart from the fact that they weren’t blown away at any stage.

Fnatic Leaders By A Distance

Fnatic’s loss to Astralis would count as an aberration. They have otherwise had a flawless last month or so, dropping just two games. Both their losses can be attributed more to complacency than confidence crisis, perhaps a bad draft and early fumble didn’t help either. But these are issues that are well within their control and something they can fix.

They have beaten F2, Rogue and Vitality. That alone should make them the pack leaders in the LEC. The scary part is they’ve been able to do so without being at 100% efficiency.

The possibilities are endless. They have Team BDS, Misfits Gaming, and EXCEL Esports lined up for this week and they’d back themselves to win all three. They’re just one win behind Rogue; reason enough to go all guns blazing despite locking a playoff spot.

How to Watch LEC 2022 Spring Split