DPC China Division 1 Picks, Predictions, Odds January 23

• PSG LGD will again fancy their chances in the lanes against Invictus Gaming
• Vici Gaming will be desperate for a win against a decent Phoenix Gaming
• Monet and Ori will be the go-to weapons for Aster against RNG

Invictus Gaming vs PSG LGD Pick

PSG LGD to win (Moneyline)

So the league stage is almost done and here we are, staring at the unexpected. Invictus are seventh and look set to be relegated to Division-2 of the next tour. With a solitary win in six games, there’s nothing but pride to play for. At least they’d now want to ensure they don’t scrape the bottom of the table.

At the opposite end of the spectrum are PSG.LGD, is perched at the top and look set to continue the reign there. They’re unbeaten in six games and carry with them the promise of finishing the group stages with an all-win record. Even a side as formidable as them would’ve hoped to have been challenged more than they have been thus far. Maybe, bigger battles lie ahead after all.

What Happened In Their Most Recent Outing?

PSG.LGD beat EHOME 2-1 in their most recent fixture on Tuesday, while Invictus were drubbed 2-0 by Team Aster. Everything points to another round of domination from PSG. Can Invictus cause a mighty upset? The odds are stacked against them heavily – no small margins, mind you – and it’ll take brave men and women to put their money on them on current form.

PSG were trailing behind by a long way on kills, having managed just 21 and 27, across the first two games of the best-of-three, while conceding 28 and 36 kills, which is significantly more than EHOME’s average. But like good sides do, they held their nerve and stormed back in game three to restrict EHOME’s kills to 16 while significantly bettering their own game to effect 33 kills. This helped them nick the contest 2-1. It’s this never-say-die spirit that Invictus need to channel if they’re to find a way back against a top team and sign off on a high. Invictus, meanwhile, was drubbed in two games itself, where they managed far fewer than their average kill rate of 26.78.

What Else Do The Metrics Say?

PSG.LGD’s overall win record stands at a mighty impressive 71.21% across 66 maps; Invictus are behind by a whole eight points – and currently stand at 63.49% across 63 maps in the latest patch of Dota-2. We looked at the kill rate earlier; what about deaths? Invictus average 21.94 per map, which points to healthy kills to death ratio. PSG.LGD, in comparison, average 22.48 deaths while maintaining a stunning efficiency through their assist rate of 60.23, along with 39 denies. This points to some clinical efficiency across the field that Invictus may have to identify as a potential threat. They simply can’t let PSG sift through lanes as easily as they have been so far.

What PSG do very well is they size up opponents, look for threats, try to fight that by keeping the opponents in the hunt and then go for the kill. This explains why their average win rate per map lies at 37.20. Few other teams achieve wins earlier, but there’s a reason why PSG back this tried and tested method. So why fix something that ain’t broke?

Invictus are faster in wins, averaging 36.49, but this is also something opponents over time have figured. So they try and target this very area, frustrating them and keep denying them the kills, which inturn has often led to them being unable to seize the upper hand. This is a deadlock they will somehow need to try and break.

Key Player For Both Sides

Ame continues to be their key player in the offence in the absence of NothingToSay and XinQ, both of whom are on loan to EHOME. However, this loss is somewhat compensated by the omnipresence of the reliable Faith_bian, who lends his versatility and experience to the field.

How do you match up to someone of the kind of experience as Ame? 838 staggering maps and 531 wins later, he continues to be the pillar of strength for PSG. His average kill rate of 7.09 is a mark of his consistency over time. Marry this with his assist of 9.23 and you build an ideal Dota-2 player. Keep him in the game for as long as possible.

Invictus are ever-reliant on FlyFly and Emo –  clearly two of their biggest trump cards. But as always, they will need support from the rest of the field. Two men going for the kill need as much support through assists from the rest of the field. Invictus have been found wanting in this area. They need to tighten up to make this a close contest.

Vici Gaming vs Phoenix Gaming Pick

Vici Gaming to win (Moneyline)

Vici Gaming v Phoenix Gaming Predictions

In what is mostly a battle of the laggards, Vici will fight to stay in the top six to remain in the current division of the next tour. For that, they will need to beat Phoenix in their final fixture. Two wins in six is an accurate reflection of how inconsistent they’ve been, but there is one final chance to end on a high and build for the seasons ahead.

Phoenix are eighth, having lost each of their six matches. They’re already out of contention for a place in the same division. Relegation to division-2 is more or less confirmed. Now to notch up a win and earn some pride back. On the outside, Phoenix have the odds heavily stacked against them for understandable reasons, but should they cause a massive stir, you’re guaranteed to get a bang for your buck. On current form though, would you still take a punt on them, considering they’re winless?

How Their Recent Outing Ended

Going by just their previous game alone, both Vici and Phoenix are coming off forgettable losses. Vici were pounded 2-0 by Royals Never Give Up while Phoenix lost 2-0 to Team Aster. But it’s not by any means a level-playing field for reasons ascertained above.

Vici don’t quite have the consistency to go with they flashes of brilliance. So far, their journey has been lined up with mighty impressive wins followed by deflating losses. They’re yet to build on victories that have led them down the title routes. And while such a possibility won’t manifest itself this time around too, they have to find a way to break that deadlock. Their final game is an opportunity to try something different.

A New Strategy?

Their success rate of 56% indicates they’re not too shallow when it comes to talent and depth. Across 71 maps, that’s as good as a mid-table contender has mustered over the years. Now to find that push from being in the mid-table or lower mid-table to the top four.

Their kill rate of 25.37 is not the best, but it points to the ability to sift through lanes and score. However, their death rate of 22.77 points to a potentially shaky defence. The inability to convert on assists and allow the opponents surround their tower and go full throttle.

Speed And Efficiency

Vici’s average duration per map in their 71 maps is 38 minutes and 55 seconds. In wins, this number doesn’t change drastically, at 38.39. Phoenix don’t have the kind of sample size you’d ideally want to extrapolate, but it is a contest mostly between two sides that can try and play their brand of play to dominate.

A methodical, concerted model can stave off kills, keep the opponent in the game for longer. This could allow Phoenix a small window of an opportunity. All said and done, they may want to explore this opportunity.

Royal Never Give Up vs Team Aster Pick

Royal Never Give Up to win (moneyline)

Team Aster v Royal Never Give Up Prediction

The third of our contests is a potential potboiler. The second-placed Aster taking on third-placed RNG. Aster are assured of a top-four finish, a good cash reward and crucial DTC points. It’s slightly tricky for RNG, because a loss could see them slip one position.

All said, both sides will retain their positions in the upcoming draw. With no threat of relegation looming, it is an opportunity for both freed up teams to express themselves and bring out an aggressive game one final time to end the tour on a high.

Aster Have The Experience

Aster have featured in 50 maps, with a win percentage of over 50. RNG have just 32 maps, but have a better win percentage of 59.38. It doesn’t give you a true picture as to who is a better team, though. Let’s look at a few other metrics to see if we can make a strong inference.

Aster on an average effect 24.03 kills and 22.32 deaths per map; RNG almost have as many deaths as kills, which points to a potentially weak defence and their inability to stave off threats. Is it because they get overcautious, is it because they tend to become very defensive? It’s something they’d do well to look inward.

Aster have an assist rate of 53.89; RNG conjure up 54.75 assists on an average. This disproves the theory that more assists automatically translate to more kills. In this case, it means Aster have plans for every player and definitely try and stay in the game even if at times, their defence may not blow hot.

A GPM of 2310 across 32 maps is a measure of how RNG haven’t always been off colour; in fact it’s a measure of how they try different things to reinvent the wheel and remain in the hunt. That Aster have managed to remain in the position they have despite fewer GPMs over a larger sample size of maps is a measure of how they have different approaches to different situations.

Monet And Ori’s Strong Alliance

Monet and Ori is a partnership that has often given Aster an aura of dominance. Far too often teams have plotted and planned so much against these two that the others have tended to fly under the radar and sting them at inopportune moments. This is a hallmark of a champion side – the ability to find different heroes rise to the occasion. While these two take all the accolades, Aster have time and again proved it’s a team game and how the others have constantly punched above their weight.

Sommus’M and FelixCioBa have the ability to counter punch and can throw a spanner in the works of the best in the field. So on the face of it, this promises to be a blockbuster clash that will go down to the wire. Two champion teams, two different strategies but similar vision. and an eye for glory. The numbers slightly favour Aster, but discount RNG at your own peril.

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