DPC China Division 1 Picks, Predictions, Odds January 18

• PSG LGD start as heavy favorites against a lacklustre EHOME team
• Royal Never Give Up should be too strong even for a solid Vici Gaming unit
• Team Aster’s Monet will be hard to stop for Invictus Gaming

EHOME vs PSG LGD Pick

PSG LGD to win (-1000)

On paper, this appears to be a lopsided contest,  but games aren’t played on paper. It’s this motivation that EHOME, currently languishing in the bottom half of the points table, will want to carry if they are to upset table-toppers PSG LGD.

EHOME are fifth, having won two and lost two. With three games left, they’ll probably have to win all three to have a chance of finishing in the top four, and probably at least two to remain in the top six. They wouldn’t want a bottom-two finish for it will relegate them to Division-2 of the next tour.

PSG LGD are cruising high and happy, no worries, no threats; their position in the top four all but guaranteed by virtue of four wins. Often when a team is perched at the top without being challenged, it could potentially lead to complacency. This is something they’d do well to watch out for. Sport is often about momentum, and it is how they ride it that will dictate where they ultimately end up. For now, it’ll not be far-fetched to assume a top-two finish isn’t out of question.

The top spot can make them richer by US$ 30,000, second could see them gain US$28,000. The difference in financial reward may be little, but the difference in points could be significant. A top spot could earn them 300 DPC points, finishing second will mean they settle for 180 DPC points.

PSG LGD Rich on Experience

PSG have the experience of having played at least five times more (66 maps) than their opponents (12 maps). This makes it likely they’ve possibly encountered every possible bit of turbulence along the way – challenges they’ve had to wriggle out of. This is a significant advantage to a side particularly when games come thick and fast.

At times, players can let instincts take over and if a side has the experience of being challenged at different times, players could let their muscle memory take over. How do they sift through lanes quickly? Who do they target? How do they go for the kill? Do they keep the opponents in the game for longer before swooping in? It’s likely they’ve already got answers to these questions while entering the field.

PSG.LGD averages 26.44 kills per map on average, along with 22.58 deaths. In comparison, EHOME averages 23.58 kills and 22.75 deaths. Where PSG also scores is their high assist rate of 60.23, considered to be more than healthy. EHOME are slightly off the pace here, too, averaging 55.33. Now, when you extrapolate all this data, you can get a sense of how PSG’s strategy borders on the aggressive, whereas EHOME tends to adopt a safety-first approach, which always doesn’t prove successful.

Although this isn’t a concern, PSG’s GPM over 66 games stands at 2147. EHOME has more than 9-% of this number over just 12 games. It points to how not everything’s doom and gloom for them. What they do need is a sound plan and the ability to stick to it over a good length of time. Both sides also have an identical time (37.20 minutes and 37.19) when it comes to completing a map in wins.

PSG’s Unshakable Faith

Look at the assist rate of their key players. Ame: 9.23. Y’: 14.15. NothingToSay: 10.71. This tells you it’s not a team of individuals, but one of collective effort. This also tells you not one player can really be targeted. Now, throw in their collective experience and a healthy win percentage of over 60 and it tells you why PSG are clearly the overwhelming favorites.

Ame’s kill rate of 7.09 makes him a key person in the mid-lane. It’s also the highest among the PSG line-up. That said, there’s enough proof as to why none of the others can be underestimated.

Vici Gaming vs Royal Never Give Up Pick

Royal Never Give Up to win (-225)

VICI Gaming v Royal Never Give Up Predictions

Elsewhere, it is a front-runner taking on a mid-table side. VICI are placed joint-fifth, with two wins and two losses. Royal are second, having won three out of four. Their only loss so far was a narrow 2-1 loss to LBZS – a minor blip in an otherwise impressive run as the competition nears the halfway mark. VICI are at that stage where a loss or two and finish in the top-six could become a distant dream.

VICI has to do all the running. They have been patchy so far, and are up against an experienced and aggressive outfit that scores better on several parameters, even if a slightly lower win percentage – albeit over many more games than Royals – may be a tad misleading. VICI have 45 wins out of 85 maps, which amounts to a win percentage of 52.94. Royal, meanwhile, have a win percentage of 59.38, but over a smaller sample size of 32 maps.

And in a league structure as competitive as this, experience is king. It must also be noted that much of Royals’ wins have come against opponents in the top tier. All said and done, VICI would like to channel their relative inexperience better. This factor could also work as a blessing; the Royals may not have a definite trend they can try and exploit. So it’s the unpredictability factor that could work to their advantage.

Contrasting Styles at Play

Royals have a kill rate of 24.78 on an average per map, but negate any advantage they may be able to muster by having a death rate of 24.03. It points to their inability to pounce on their opponents immediately in the aftermath of having been in a position of dominance.

VICI has a kill rate of 24.66 and a death rate of 22.75 on an average per map. What also contributes to a slightly better ratio is the assist rate of 57.67 as compared to Royals’ assist rate of 54.75. So stringing up a sequence of assists helps VICI switch lanes seamlessly in search of kills.

VICI also sifts through lanes methodically; they take 39.17 minutes in wins on an average per map. Royals take 37.24 minutes on an average in wins, pointing to their intention of going all out to clear the field. This strategy can backfire against experienced sides, however. They’ll need to find a middle ground and a Plan B if they’re to compete and beat the big teams.

Somnus’M key for Royals

With a kill rate of 9.91 and a success rate of 62.86 over 35 maps, Somnus’M is a key player for underdogs Royals. He’ll need to stand up and perform under pressure, especially when VICI marks out their victims and then swoops in. His GPM of 614.03 is also among the best for the Royals. They’ll need to win the smaller moments ion they are to put pressure on VICI. In FelixCiaoBa, they have an excellent wingman, who is built for clinical assists, a rate of 12.34 points to clinical efficiency.

VICI has an equally efficient player across the field in Poyoyo, who has a kill rate of 7.16, but an equally excellent death rate of 2.82. His GPM of 628.04 has the potential to cancel out any kind of advantage or pressure Royals may look to build on them through Somnus’M.

Invictus Gaming vs Team Aster Pick

Team Aster to win (-250)

Invictus Gaming vs Team Aster Predictions

To round off our fixtures on Tuesday, we’ve got two fancied teams at opposite ends of the spectrum. Team Aster are riding high with three wins in four to be second, while Invictus have had to face defeat in four of the five matches. They’re in relegation zone currently and nothing but two wins in the remaining will keep them in the hunt for a top-six finish.

Let us now extrapolate their date over the current patch of Dota-2 to find some trends and patterns that could help you decide on whom you want to put your money on.

Not Much to Choose From

One glance at the numbers may tell you while they’re on opposite ends of the points table, there isn’t much separating the sides. Invictus has a win percentage of 56.79 across 81 maps; Aster has a win percentage of 54.84 across 62 maps.

Aster averages 24.73 kills and 21.56 deaths, Invictus averages a slightly higher kill rate of 26.19 while averaging just 22.93 deaths. This is a clear advantage Invictus enjoys, in terms of sifting through lanes and going on an all-out attack without compromising their defense. In terms of denials, Aster averages 37 to Invictus’ 36. So while there is a huge gulf presently, the overall numbers point to both sides starting on an even keel.

Stop Monet if You Can

In Monet, Aster has a striker capable of landing the big kills. His kill rate of 7.01 over 312 maps is among the best in the field presently. He has an excellent partner-in-crime in Ori, even if he may be relatively experienced, having featured in just 21 maps. Still, his kill rate of 7.95 coupled with his assist rate of 9.62 has all the ingredients of a formidable partnership.

Aster has as many as 1050 Last Hits across 62 maps; Invictus average a tad lower with 1013 Last Hits across 81 maps. You may wonder what the significance of this metric is. It’s a technique where a player enters the enemy lane to effect a kill. It is the sum of small significant wins like these Aster would want to conjure together to effect victory.

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