DPC China Division 1 Picks, Predictions, Odds January 16

• Invictus Gaming will fancy their chances against LBZS
• EHOME, Vici Gaming involved in even money matchup
• PSG LGD heavy favorites against Royal Never Give Up

Invictus Gaming vs LBZS

Invictus Gaming to Win

Do note: All the records and numbers taken into consideration are from before Invictus and LBZS faced off against Vici Gaming and Phoenix Gaming respectively.

At face value, not much separates these two sides in the points standings. At the time of writing, Invictus are currently fifth with one win in three; LBZS are seventh with one win in four. This puts them under a serious threat of relegation to Division 2 for the next tour. So a win is paramount for both teams at this stage. All said, there will be subtle factors that could dictate the course of this contest even if Invictus may be slight favorites to begin with.

In their last 63 maps, Invictus have won 40 maps and lost 23. During this period, the team has averaged 26.78 kills, 21.94 deaths and 60.25 assists with 37 denies. These numbers are a notch ahead of LBZS, who are still searching for a combination and a strategy that can guarantee success. They were found wanting in their last two outings: losing by a 2-0 margin to both Team Aster and PSG.LGD.

Invictus: High on Experience

FlyFly: 609 maps. Emo: 663 maps. JT: 663 maps. Oli: 672 maps. This kind of combined experience can intimidate any opponent. And in order to keep Invictus quiet, LBZS will have plenty of plotting and planning to do.  Irrespective of which side they play on, they will need to find a way to keep Emo quiet. After all, he has been one of their most prolific players in their history.

With 363 wins, he has a win percentage of 54.75, but it’s the average kills per map (8.13) which is a standout. When you marry that stat along with an impressive assist rate of 9.49, you get the kind of data that speaks volumes of a player’s efficiency. It’s no surprise that his death rate of 3.36 is among the lowest for his team.

Emo’s contributions aren’t just limited to tangible kills and other metrics. He also has a healthy GPM of 575.90. None of the others presently in the field have those kinds of numbers. Emo is therefore a safe bet, who will be key to lead Invictus through to the next stage of the competition. A top six finish is essential for them to remain in the current division for the next tour.

Speed and Precision

Team Invictus’ average duration per map in their last 63 games is 37 minutes and 34 seconds. In wins, this number marginally goes up to 36 minutes and 49 seconds. LBZS don’t have the kind of sample size that can be extrapolated, but one can safely say the contest will come down to which team dominates their preferred style. A methodical, concerted model can stave off kills and keep LBZS in the contest for longer.

This could then allow them to pounce on a window of opportunity. Of course it is easier said than done, but it’s an option worth exploring. They’re the underdogs who could give you a bigger bang for the buck should they win, but not every day do you see sporting upsets. If you want to pick a favourite, there’s only one team here: Invictus.

EHOME vs Vici Gaming Pick

Vici Gaming to Win

EHOME vs Vici Gaming Predictions

In another mid-table battle, EHOME and Vici Gaming will fight to make a move up into the top four, for it guarantees them vital DPC points as well as a cash prize ranging from US$ 26,000-30,000. Up until Thursday evening, EHOME had won two and lost two; Vici won one, lost two. Two good games and the complexion of the standings could change completely. 

After starting with two wins, EHOME lost two on the bounce to RNG and Team Aster. They’ll want to string up wins in the remainder of the competition to ensure they finish in the top six to stave off relegation.

VICI’s Method to the Madness

Overall, VICI has a win percentage of 56.34 across 71 maps.  Their kills to death ratio is also pretty healthy at 25.37: 22.77. This means they rarely squander the advantage as soon as they effect a kill. That said, to become one of the top sides, they will need to marginally improve on that count. Their assist rate of 59.48 is quite impressive, pointing to some significant planning in terms of sifting through the field and stringing together moves that puts them in the best position to go for the kill.

Vici takes on average 38.55 minutes to sift through a map; but in wins, this number comes down by 16 seconds. These are possibly an indication that while they are aggressive, they are not a side that will blank out our inherent risks in search of reward. 

It is a well thought-out strategy that revolves around being cautious, finding their feet by staving off opposition threats and then trying to make a move. It’s something that has worked for them so far, but against a side you don’t have much data that you can rely on, this could at times be a double-edged sword that you should guard against.

PSG LGD vs Royal Never Give Up Pick

PSG LGD to Win

PSG LGD vs Royal Never Give Up Predictions

PSG LGD are sitting pretty at the top of the table, having racked up four wins in four. Royals Never Give Up are breathing down their neck at second, with three wins. In terms of results there’s little to choose from. These are blockbuster teams going hammer and tongs against each other;  it promises to be a game of fine margins.

PSG have a formidable record overall in the latest patch of Dota2 – they have won 47 of the 66 maps, with a mighty impressive kill to death ration of 26.44 to 22.58. It points to two things: a strategy that is borne out of aggression and intent to sift through the field with sustained intensity, and with the ability to do so while not allowing the opposition a wink of an opportunity. A high assist rate of 60.23 shows how they seldom allow their opponents back into the game once they have the upper hand.

Royals Can’t Concede Ground Quickly

Royals have an equally formidable success rate – 19 wins out of 32 – but don’t quite have the big-game experience. How they grind out key moments under pressure could dictate their approach going forward. Their kill rate of 24.78 is fairly good, but in conceding 24.03 deaths on an average per map, they’ve shown tendencies of conceding the advantage quickly. While this may not affect them against teams in the lower rung, they could be found wanting against the top sides.

PSG takes 37.20 minutes on an average per map in wins; Royals are slightly behind at 37.24. While there isn’t much to choose from on that count, it’s not a metric that spells out how dominant a team is. At best, it gives you a small peek into how aggressive they are or can be.

Ame the kKey for PSG

Ame has the experience of 838 maps, averaging a kill rate of 7.09, along with a death rate of 3.34. In terms of assists too, he’s got quite a high number – 9.23. These are the kinds that can intimidate top teams, and it can be hard to buy this kind of experience. In comparison, two key players for Royals – Sommus and Chalice – have a combined experience of 66 maps. 

While FelixCiaoBa has considerable experience of 292 matches, he’s more part of the support case – allowing the aggressors to switch lanes and helping them build on assists. If Royals have been able to rally together despite the relative inexperience, it’s only because of their collective team effort. 

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