Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Prediction, Betting Odds, Picks

• Borussia Dortmund will move to within three points of top spot if they win this match
• Freiburg have been the Bundesliga’s surprise package so far this season
• Christian Streich’s side can pull off an upset at Signal Iduna Park on Friday

Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Odds

Borussia Dortmund Have Chance to Put Heat on Bayern Munich

Perhaps the Bundesliga title race is not over after all. Bayern Munich, the winter champions, kicked off the second half of the season against Borussia Monchengladbach and had the chance to temporarily move 12 points clear at the summit of the standings. Surprisingly, Bayern did not take their chance. A 2-1 home defeat gave Dortmund the opportunity to close the gap to six points the following day – and that is exactly what they did, coming from two goals down to beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2.

It was a fantastic turnaround from Marco Rose’s side, but Dortmund cannot help making things hard for themselves. They have only registered back-to-back wins in the Bundesliga once since October, and have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight outings. This Dortmund team does not seem capable of winning matches in an uneventful fashion. There is almost always something going on when BVB take to the field.

Dortmund remain huge outsiders to finish on top of the pile in Germany – Draft Kings price them at +1200, compared to -3500 for Bayern. Julian Nagelsmann’s men are not infallible, as their recent loss to Gladbach illustrates. But they were much more reliable than Dortmund in the first half of the campaign, and they do not share their rivals’ propensity to shoot themselves in the foot at inopportune moments.

For now, though, Dortmund still have hope. This is a team which can beat any other on their day. They do not quite have the firepower to match Bayern, but BVB are seldom short of goals – as an average of 2.44 per game this season illustrates. They will almost certainly need to tighten up at the back if they are to overhaul Bayern, however. Coming from two goals down to win 3-2 is not a trick you can rely on too often.

Freiburg Exceeding Expectations in Champions League Race

Not even the most ardent Freiburg fan could have expected the team to be fourth in the Bundesliga at this stage of the season. Christian Streich’s side finished 10th last term and were expected to be around mid-table this time around too. They only signed one player in the summer – Maximilian Eggestein from Werder Bremen – and had to wait until the fall to move into their new stadium, a potentially turbulent activity mid-season.

Yet Streich continues to work his magic. The longest-serving manager in the Bundesliga, he has been in his current post since December 2011, just a few months after Jurgen Klopp won his first league title at Dortmund. It has not been a case of constant improvement since then; Freiburg were relegated in 2015 and only narrowly avoided the drop three years later. But Streich continues to extract the absolute maximum from the resources at his disposal.

This season could turn out to be his best yet. Securing a place in the Champions League would be a truly extraordinary achievement for a club with one of the lowest wage bills in the division. Freiburg had a wobble in November, losing all three of their games that month, but have been defeated in only one of their subsequent five outings.

The key to Freiburg’s unlikely Champions League challenge is a solid defense. No team in the Bundesliga has conceded fewer goals than Streich’s side, whose backline has been breached just 18 times. If they can continue to keep things tight at the back, a top-four finish might not be beyond the Breisgau-Brasilianer.

Freiburg Will Test Dortmund in Front of Reduced Crowd

This will be a stern test of Dortmund’s credentials. BVB do not usually struggle for goals, but no team has scored more than twice in a game against Freiburg this season. Three of their four defeats have come by a single-goal margin; Streich’s charges do not give much away, and they can be tricky to break down. It is impressive that Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in a third of their Bundesliga matches this season.

Dortmund will need to remain patient if they are to emerge victorious. But while it is hard to envisage them failing to find the net, Rose’s side will not find it easy to see off such stubborn opponents. Their cause will not be helped by the latest Covid-19 restrictions in Germany, which limit crowd capacities to a maximum of 15,000 people.

Freiburg have the tools to frustrate Dortmund, and they carry enough of an attacking threat to give the home team something to think about at the other end of the field. Winning at Signal Iduna Park would be a big ask, but back Freiburg or tie in the double chance market.

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