US Presidential Election 2028: Odds and Predictions

Donald Trump was elected president of the United States in the 2024 election, but online sportsbooks have already released odds for the 2028 cycle. 

The odds-on favorite is Trump’s Vice President, J.D. Vance. He’s currently at +275 at BetMGM Ontario, while California Governor Gavin Newsom is at +700.

2028 U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds

While Trump’s second non-consecutive term in office has yet to begin, the table below shows the odds-on favorites for the 2028 cycle. It includes Vance, Newsom, and other potential Republican and Democratic nominees. 

These are the odds as of Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024.

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❗Although you cannot bet on the election at any US-licensed sportsbooks, you can check the wide variety of betting markets available, such as betting on the Super Bowl, NCAA Championship, and much more. See our favorites below!

J.D. Vance Favored to Win 2028 Presidential Election

Vance, who’s set to begin his term as Vice President under Trump, is at +275, which implies a probability of 26.67%. 

Odds on Tulsi Gabbard Winning the 2028 U.S. Election

After Vance, the next top GOP contender is Gabbard at +2000. Behind her are fellow GOP hopefuls like DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and Haley. 

Gabbard has military experience and was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Hawaii’s 2nd district. President-elect Trump has also nominated her to be the Director of National Intelligence. 

Gabbard is unique in that she ran for President in 2020 as a Democrat before leaving the party in 2022 to become an Independent. In 2024, she joined the Republican Party. 

Ahead of her are four Democratic hopefuls in Newsom (California Governor), Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor), Obama (the former First Lady), and Whitmer (Michigan Governor). 

Regardless, Trump’s second term success will significantly affect how these odds shake out over the next four years. 

Here’s how the odds look for individual parties instead of a specific nominee, courtesy of bet365 Canada. 

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How Can I Bet on the US Presidential Election?

Pool Betting

There are still some ways that making a pick for president is possible. 

We recently saw DraftKings offer free-to-play pools with $100,000 up for grabs. These allowed you to answer a series of prop-like questions, and you’d receive bonus bets that carried playthrough requirements. 

There could be similar offerings for 2028, but that’s unknown now. 

How Do Election Odds Work?

Odds for presidential elections are displayed in three ways: 

• American Odds

• Fractional Odds

• Decimal Odds

American Odds

These are shown with “+” and “-” odds. The “+” indicates the underdog, while “-” is the favorite. 

Here’s the best way to think about these odds:

• With “+” odds, you’ll win the amount associated with a winning $100 wager.

• With “-” odds, you must wager the amount associated to win $100. 

For example, if Trump was -145, you must wager $145 to win $100. Conversely, if he was +150 and you wagered $100 and won, you’d get $150. 

Fractional Odds

These are more popular in the UK. You just multiply your bet amount by the fraction to determine your potential profit.

For example:

• J.D. Vance is 11/4 in 2028, so $100 x 11/4 = $275.

• Gavin Newsom is 7/1 in 2028, so $100 x 7/1 = $700. 

Decimal Odds

Decimal odds are some of the easiest to calculate, and the number you get after following the equation includes your winnings and yriginal stake. 

For example: 

• J.D. Vance is 3.75 in 2028, so $100 x 3.75 = $375.

• Gavin Newsom is 8.00 in 2028, so $100 x 8.00 = $800.

How to Bet On the 2028 Presidential Election

The potential betting markets for the 2028 Presidential Election will increase as we get close to Election Day. 

While these may include nominees and parties right now, there are others you can most likely expect to see. 

Winner

Simple: Bet on who you think will win. 

To Win the Popular Vote 

Based on how the Electoral College works (more on that later), it’s possible to become President while losing the popular vote. Trump won the popular vote in 2024 and became president, but in 2016, he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton but still became president. Heading into 2024, Kamala Harris was the favorite to win the popular vote. 

Winning Party: Republicans or Democrats

This allows you to bet on which party you think will win instead of a candidate, providing value before nominees for each party have been chosen. 

Winning Gender

There have been women nominees in two of the last three elections, but no woman has yet to become president. Gabbard is now +2000, and as the election draws closer, you can wager on whether a man or woman will take the White House in 2028. 

Democrat/Republican Nominee

You can bet on who you think the nominee will be. 

What Is the Electoral College?

As mentioned, the Electoral College ultimately determines who will be president. The Electoral College is a system that, as of 2024, consists of 538 electoral votes. Each state receives a specific amount based on the latest Census. 

Larger states like California and Texas have more than somewhere like Wyoming. 

Here are some of the biggest states: 

• California (55)

• Texas (38)

• Florida (29)

• New York (29)

And here are some of the smaller locations. These each receive three electoral votes: 

• Alaska

• Delaware

• Montana

• North Dakota

• South Dakota

• Vermont

• Wyoming

• District of Columbia (Washington D.C.)

To win the presidency, it’s a race to 270. 

What Are the Key Swing States for the 2028 Presidential Election?

Heading into the 2024 election, the key swing states included the following: 

• Arizona

• Georgia

• Michigan

• North Carolina

• Nevada

• Pennsylvania

• Wisconsin

Trump won all seven key swing states and 31 of 50 states. 

Other states with single-digit victory margins include New Mexico, Minnesota, Virginia, New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Maine. All of these states went to Harris.